So, I'm obviously late to this article, which I really enjoyed! But I'm curious, are you familiar with the theory of thermostatic politics? It's the idea that the American voting public wants more liberal policies when the GOP is in charge, yet wants more conservative policy when Democrats have power. I think it actually does a decent job explaining US politics so far this century, given the back and forth we've seen in elections. This fall, we might just end up with another very close election, with swing voters shifting from Biden to Trump in just large enough numbers to flip a few states, but maybe not enough for Trump to win. Stasis is the most likely outcome, basically.
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I have heard of that theory, although I'm not overly familiar with it, and I'll probably try to learn more about it now that you brought it up. But I never pursued it because I don't tend to agree with it on the surface. The populace has always exhibited its exhaustion with a particular president or party in power by flipping back and forth between them to some degree, and holding them in check. But there seems to be an underlying (or, overlying perhaps is the better word) ideological current that runs through and between all the political waves, and they seem to happen in historical cycles, and I think we're at the end of one (conservative) and the beginning of another (liberal) at this moment, hence my idea of a strong leftward lurch coming soon, if not this cycle.
When we're in the middle of these cycles, both parties express the dominant ideologies, but just in differing degrees. Even if you look at this century and it's flipping back and forth, the popular sentiment has been trending towards the liberal side on many issues such as abortion, foreign wars/entanglements, gun policy, labor unions, etc., regardless of which party has been in power. Conservatism has won out on these issues over decades of work and electoral successes, but they are shifting the other way now, and you will likely see many or most Republicans adopt moderate or just right-of-center positions on them, sharply adjusting from their recent hard-right stances.
You should read my post "The Stages of Political Drunkenness" (link is in this article, or you can search my post history) for more in depth explanation of these cycles, and let me know what you think.
Even if this comes to pass, the Democrats will face challenges governing the country. With Trump safely out of the way short of an attempt at a coup, the tensions between the neoliberal and progressive wings of the party will resurface. The 2028 presidential primary could get ugly indeed, with Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg facing off against a progressive opponent such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. (Harris vs AOC would be a generational clash as well as an ideological one.)
Meanwhile, the Republicans would have to figure out where to go after the defeat. They might lurch back toward the center, or double down on Trumpism without Trump.
So, I'm obviously late to this article, which I really enjoyed! But I'm curious, are you familiar with the theory of thermostatic politics? It's the idea that the American voting public wants more liberal policies when the GOP is in charge, yet wants more conservative policy when Democrats have power. I think it actually does a decent job explaining US politics so far this century, given the back and forth we've seen in elections. This fall, we might just end up with another very close election, with swing voters shifting from Biden to Trump in just large enough numbers to flip a few states, but maybe not enough for Trump to win. Stasis is the most likely outcome, basically.
Thanks for reading and commenting, and subscribing! Welcome aboard!
I have heard of that theory, although I'm not overly familiar with it, and I'll probably try to learn more about it now that you brought it up. But I never pursued it because I don't tend to agree with it on the surface. The populace has always exhibited its exhaustion with a particular president or party in power by flipping back and forth between them to some degree, and holding them in check. But there seems to be an underlying (or, overlying perhaps is the better word) ideological current that runs through and between all the political waves, and they seem to happen in historical cycles, and I think we're at the end of one (conservative) and the beginning of another (liberal) at this moment, hence my idea of a strong leftward lurch coming soon, if not this cycle.
When we're in the middle of these cycles, both parties express the dominant ideologies, but just in differing degrees. Even if you look at this century and it's flipping back and forth, the popular sentiment has been trending towards the liberal side on many issues such as abortion, foreign wars/entanglements, gun policy, labor unions, etc., regardless of which party has been in power. Conservatism has won out on these issues over decades of work and electoral successes, but they are shifting the other way now, and you will likely see many or most Republicans adopt moderate or just right-of-center positions on them, sharply adjusting from their recent hard-right stances.
You should read my post "The Stages of Political Drunkenness" (link is in this article, or you can search my post history) for more in depth explanation of these cycles, and let me know what you think.
Even if this comes to pass, the Democrats will face challenges governing the country. With Trump safely out of the way short of an attempt at a coup, the tensions between the neoliberal and progressive wings of the party will resurface. The 2028 presidential primary could get ugly indeed, with Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg facing off against a progressive opponent such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. (Harris vs AOC would be a generational clash as well as an ideological one.)
Meanwhile, the Republicans would have to figure out where to go after the defeat. They might lurch back toward the center, or double down on Trumpism without Trump.