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Brad Van Arnum's avatar

So, I'm obviously late to this article, which I really enjoyed! But I'm curious, are you familiar with the theory of thermostatic politics? It's the idea that the American voting public wants more liberal policies when the GOP is in charge, yet wants more conservative policy when Democrats have power. I think it actually does a decent job explaining US politics so far this century, given the back and forth we've seen in elections. This fall, we might just end up with another very close election, with swing voters shifting from Biden to Trump in just large enough numbers to flip a few states, but maybe not enough for Trump to win. Stasis is the most likely outcome, basically.

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Shirley Dulcey's avatar

Even if this comes to pass, the Democrats will face challenges governing the country. With Trump safely out of the way short of an attempt at a coup, the tensions between the neoliberal and progressive wings of the party will resurface. The 2028 presidential primary could get ugly indeed, with Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg facing off against a progressive opponent such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. (Harris vs AOC would be a generational clash as well as an ideological one.)

Meanwhile, the Republicans would have to figure out where to go after the defeat. They might lurch back toward the center, or double down on Trumpism without Trump.

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