Thinkfest: Election Reflections

What I got wrong and why

First, I’ll just get this out of the way:

I thought that Harris would have a comfortable and decisive victory.

I was wrong. Very, very wrong.

I’ve been trying to figure out how and why. It’s a head-scratcher, for sure.

I’ll be looking at more data as it comes in and considering all the available news and election analysis as well. But at this point in time, I’ve narrowed it down to a few main wrong assumptions on my part.

Turnout

I figured that Trump’s turnout would be solid, as he has his firm base of supporters and keeps them riled up. But I assumed, incorrectly, that Dems would turn out at a higher level. After all votes are counted, the total number of votes is going to be close to 2020 numbers, but probably a bit short. This could be considered very good, as turnout in 2020 was at historically high levels so therefore 2024 turnout would be at historically high levels.

But I assumed that turnout would exceed 2020 and hit even higher historical levels. Considering there was a pandemic raging during the 2020 election and the fear and urgency regarding Trump this time around that Dem leadership was expressing—and that every citizen should have been feeling—I didn’t think that was too tall of an order.

But, as usual, I tend to overestimate the American electorate, and, in what was billed as an existential election, the turnout didn’t reflect the moment.

Trump’s total share of the vote is going to be close to 50%, if not a tick higher. This means that many experts’ assumption that Trump’s ceiling was 46-47% was plain wrong.

Or, as I’m inclined to think, it may be completely accurate, but Dems and other potential Harris-leaning voters just didn’t vote. If they had, Trump’s share would have met or plummeted below his presumed ceiling. This means that the electorate we thought we had didn’t fully show up. Harris is likely to get 7 to 8 million less votes than Joe Biden got in 2020 in an election where she should have gotten at least the same, if not more.

There was a drop in turnout in most states. Only nine states improved their turnout over 2020. Notably, five of these nine were battleground states. The two battlegrounds that did not improve were North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Of the ones that did exceed their 2020 turnout levels, only Nevada and Wisconsin exceeded them by 1% or more.

I’ve seen a lot of analyses that brush aside the concept of a disappointing turnout, citing these five battleground states’ performances.

But I can’t brush it aside.

For an election that was supposed to be a referendum on the future of America and if whether or not democracy survives, this seems like a tepid improvement.

It appears that I, in my democracy-loving bubble, missed on this assumption. I thought America would have no problem voting in numbers that exceeded 2020’s, especially considering how many voted last time in an attempt to kick Trump out of office, during a devastating pandemic no less.

I was wrong.

Republican cross-over

One of my recent pieces published soon before the election strongly encouraged readers to ignore polls and focus on logic. My logic mostly relied on the fact that there appeared to be a coalition building between disaffected Republicans and Democrats. This coalition, if as large as it seemed, should have resulted in a decisive Harris victory.

This was way off. There was a coalition, but it was insignificant in the end. They either sat home and didn’t vote, or their numbers were not nearly what they appeared. Or they reverted back to Republican.

There should be more data coming in soon on individual voting patterns where we can see what happened more clearly. I assumed there was a significant enough cross-over that it would easily swing the election to Harris.

I was wrong.

Underestimating Trump’s allure

Surely, I thought, this time around voters would resoundingly reject Trump. He was literally quoting Hitler. He never admitted to losing in 2020 and started the cancer of election denialism in the process. He was caught hoarding classified documents in his personal residence. His campaign was becoming more extreme, unhinged, disoriented, and, frankly, pathetic.

And yet, about 75 million people will have voted for him, just like last time.

I’ll admit I’ll never understand how anyone can vote for Trump. Even if you don’t like Harris or Democrats, voting for an odious madman like Trump is unfathomable in my mind.

I can accept that he has many voters mesmerized by his preternatural populist rhetoric. But I have a hard time accepting that it’s this many. I’ll have to learn more to fully understand, and I’ll try.

But this election cycle shows us that American politics is changing rapidly. The usual metrics for successful GOTV and persuasion methods may not apply anymore.

We saw absolutely phenomenal fundraising numbers and what was largely considered to be a dominant ground game for the Harris campaign in the battleground states.

And yet, despite all the dysfunction and incompetence, Trump’s campaign somehow won.

Somehow, someway, people are attracted to Trump and his style. They overlook his ugly ranting….or they love it.

I assumed the ugliness of his rhetoric, his history of incitement of violence, and his slinging of juvenile insults would turn people off.

I was wrong.

Analysis Paralysis

There are many other things we can point to, such as the youth and Latino vote trending towards Trump, the mid-campaign candidate switch, the messaging, etc.

It will take some work to go through and consider all the factors and how to improve on them.

I will take a lot of effort to understand exactly how something like this can happen; to examine exactly what America is and stands for in this century.

Despite what many people say, on both sides, there is no simple answer. Every potential answer has an effective counterargument.

Perhaps the answer is the most simple and persistent one: People were not happy with the economy and voted out the incumbent party they saw as the culprit.

I wrote a couple times about how the sentiment about Biden’s economy was historically bad, despite the macroeconomic measures being historically good. This has interested and puzzled me for some time. You can read these assessments below:

People Felt the Recent Economy was the Worst in Recorded History of Consumer Sentiment

What is Going on With the Economy?

I also wrote about how it seemed like the economy was improving and that the timing of it all could result in a huge boost to Biden’s (later Harris’) chances of winning:

Why Today's Disappointing Jobs Report is Welcome News

Polls are Shifting as Consumer Confidence is Rising. Coincidence?

Biden and Democrats Will Likely Benefit from a Rare Economic "Sweet Spot" This Year

While consumer sentiment did improve as the economic numbers improved, it didn’t improve by a lot.

Inflation as an issue may have lingered just long enough to keep people angry up through Election Day.

Trump’s solutions to this of implementing high tariffs and mass deportations are completely counter to what is logically sound, but the message of fixing the problem resonated more than the incomprehensible solution, apparently.

It seems that people kicked out the incumbent party because they were angry about higher prices. Simple.

I hope this is correct. The other possibilities are unsettling and dark, and put America in a dangerous place.

At least this way, it’s possible the electorate can swing back the other way just as easily.

It is possible.

At least, I’ll keep telling myself that for the next four years.