It drives me crazy when people (against all evidence) continue to tout the youth vote as some magical progressive solution to all the national ills.
Ofc by people, I mean older (white) people, who clearly don’t spend much time actually talking to the youngs outside their immediate home situation. Me, a middle-aged person who’s had to break down why fascism is not cool or good or exciting to the same youngs, with alarming regularity, can tell you: they don’t know. Particularly in the US where education in History both domestic and foreign is appallingly sparse. Young people think 3rd party or protest vote is fine sometimes not even because they wanna be rebels: they honestly don’t get how the government works. It’s fucking terrifying (and I’ve spent a good part of the past six months hoping they’ll all decide to stay home tbh)
Ha, yes, the youth vote isn't nearly as solid or dependable as it seems. It's a precarious voting bloc that unfortunately isn't trending the right direction now. Maybe that will change this election, but so far it's not looking like it.
As things start to sink in, educated youngs do shift. I’ve seen it irl -and we saw it in FR actually: Last presidential cycle and the one before that, FN made inroads with young people (lots of rainbow washing and shit), but once their actual history came to forefront… like, kids like to play games, but they aren’t stupid. Our job then, becomes education. Because they will not change on their own, that’s for sure. Can’t leave it up to the algo to do the messaging for us. And I love teachers (I trained to be one), but our education system can’t handle it at the moment either.
It is difficult to quantify impact in our current electoral college system. Bc impact of youth votes in NY not equal youth votes in a swing state. Everything needs to be analyzed through that lens. I have this discussion with various other voting groups - does the Black vote really “save the day” in OR? CO? The West, for that matter. We all have a tendency to look at the national aggregate trends - or what we see in our own state, when it’s really state based, and more importantly swing state based.
Various groups are touted being heroes at any given time - were youth votes in 2020 vital to winning the EC? Did they make the diff in a swing state? I haven’t analyzed the #s on that - just throwing it out there.
Lastly Rather and others may just be throwing it out there to get youth vote invigorated - bc it’s a group that often thinks it doesn’t matter.
we’re a big tent and no one group really saves the day . Unite to fight - see the French example.
Good point. It's worth doing an analysis that is more specific to the important battleground states. My article was addressing more the sweeping assumption of youth voters automatically being defenders of democracy just because they turned out, but it's not that simple. I hope they trend the other way this time and turn out more, you never know what will happen. But I'd feel better knowing that older people are shifting toward Democracy, and so far it appears that's what happening.
I wish you would do an analysis of the swing states. I am in the 65+ group. I live in a "red" part of "blue" Illinois. I find many in my group do not like either candidate because of age because they DO identify with them. I think it's important to know that being older makes one wonder more about the ability of the older candidates to adequately perform presidential duties, not support them more. If older voters support Biden over Trump it is usually because they have done their "homework" and understand the perils our nation faces should we leave NATO or get rid of NOAA or the Department of Education, etc. If voters are for Trump, it is because they believe in the "strong man" image; that he will keep them out of war and will make their personal economies better.
I am new to this substack. I am so happy I found it. Anything I can find to factually inform those in my age group to understand the stakes of this election, I am happy to have.
I fear, though, that this election (after the assassination attempt) is becoming more emotional and cult-like on the Republican side. Donald Trump's survival of the attempt (and I am thankful he was spared, being against any type of violence) has elevated him to almost "Messianic" status among many. In addition, I keep hearing how the economy was so much better under the Trump administration as people ignore or are unaware of Project 2025 and what it will do to our country. Few in my area have benefited from the many economic strides the Biden administration has made. We are a rural community. Higher wages actually hurt small businesses and schools who must hire workers. Few are involved in the stock market which is doing so well. Some have savings and are earning the best rate since the Clinton years. However, most are living paycheck to paycheck. Some benefit from the $35 insulin. Many farmers are "burdened" by regulation due to climate legislation, not realizing we must move forward as we did from horse to tractor. And, yet, through all this, our area is ignored because we are not a swing state. Even our own Senators seldom visit this part of the state. Hence, those who feel left behind. I'm sure this happens in swing states, too. Sorry....I digress.
Again, thank you for your articles, Joyce. I have been following you and Barbara McQuade for a long time. You both are a credit to your profession. I am a true believer that Education is the key to saving our Democracy.
Excellent article! I'm so glad you picked this topic, as the myth of the young voter being the Democratic Party's savior is pretty widespread (and I've even seen it brought up with 2022, as well). If Biden does win this fall, the elderly vote, particularly in MI, PA, and WI, will very likely have been the reason. Again, great analysis here!
Thanks Brad! I didn't intend on writing this, I just started looking into it out of curiosity, and the pattern popped out at me, so it compelled me to dig further. I worked pretty hard on it, and am proud of it, so I'm very glad you enjoyed and appreciated it!
This was an good read and I appreciate your break down. My question is about the polls. They are touted so often but I don't think they are valid. Many people don't have landlines and with cellphones, few people pick up an unknown number or phone companies treat them as scams. Do you think there are a lot of people out there - all ages - just doing their lives trying to stay up - and are silent? They know their minds, will vote accordingly and the truth will only be known in January 2025 when the election is certified?
It drives me crazy when people (against all evidence) continue to tout the youth vote as some magical progressive solution to all the national ills.
Ofc by people, I mean older (white) people, who clearly don’t spend much time actually talking to the youngs outside their immediate home situation. Me, a middle-aged person who’s had to break down why fascism is not cool or good or exciting to the same youngs, with alarming regularity, can tell you: they don’t know. Particularly in the US where education in History both domestic and foreign is appallingly sparse. Young people think 3rd party or protest vote is fine sometimes not even because they wanna be rebels: they honestly don’t get how the government works. It’s fucking terrifying (and I’ve spent a good part of the past six months hoping they’ll all decide to stay home tbh)
Ha, yes, the youth vote isn't nearly as solid or dependable as it seems. It's a precarious voting bloc that unfortunately isn't trending the right direction now. Maybe that will change this election, but so far it's not looking like it.
As things start to sink in, educated youngs do shift. I’ve seen it irl -and we saw it in FR actually: Last presidential cycle and the one before that, FN made inroads with young people (lots of rainbow washing and shit), but once their actual history came to forefront… like, kids like to play games, but they aren’t stupid. Our job then, becomes education. Because they will not change on their own, that’s for sure. Can’t leave it up to the algo to do the messaging for us. And I love teachers (I trained to be one), but our education system can’t handle it at the moment either.
It is difficult to quantify impact in our current electoral college system. Bc impact of youth votes in NY not equal youth votes in a swing state. Everything needs to be analyzed through that lens. I have this discussion with various other voting groups - does the Black vote really “save the day” in OR? CO? The West, for that matter. We all have a tendency to look at the national aggregate trends - or what we see in our own state, when it’s really state based, and more importantly swing state based.
Various groups are touted being heroes at any given time - were youth votes in 2020 vital to winning the EC? Did they make the diff in a swing state? I haven’t analyzed the #s on that - just throwing it out there.
Lastly Rather and others may just be throwing it out there to get youth vote invigorated - bc it’s a group that often thinks it doesn’t matter.
we’re a big tent and no one group really saves the day . Unite to fight - see the French example.
Good point. It's worth doing an analysis that is more specific to the important battleground states. My article was addressing more the sweeping assumption of youth voters automatically being defenders of democracy just because they turned out, but it's not that simple. I hope they trend the other way this time and turn out more, you never know what will happen. But I'd feel better knowing that older people are shifting toward Democracy, and so far it appears that's what happening.
I wish you would do an analysis of the swing states. I am in the 65+ group. I live in a "red" part of "blue" Illinois. I find many in my group do not like either candidate because of age because they DO identify with them. I think it's important to know that being older makes one wonder more about the ability of the older candidates to adequately perform presidential duties, not support them more. If older voters support Biden over Trump it is usually because they have done their "homework" and understand the perils our nation faces should we leave NATO or get rid of NOAA or the Department of Education, etc. If voters are for Trump, it is because they believe in the "strong man" image; that he will keep them out of war and will make their personal economies better.
I am new to this substack. I am so happy I found it. Anything I can find to factually inform those in my age group to understand the stakes of this election, I am happy to have.
I fear, though, that this election (after the assassination attempt) is becoming more emotional and cult-like on the Republican side. Donald Trump's survival of the attempt (and I am thankful he was spared, being against any type of violence) has elevated him to almost "Messianic" status among many. In addition, I keep hearing how the economy was so much better under the Trump administration as people ignore or are unaware of Project 2025 and what it will do to our country. Few in my area have benefited from the many economic strides the Biden administration has made. We are a rural community. Higher wages actually hurt small businesses and schools who must hire workers. Few are involved in the stock market which is doing so well. Some have savings and are earning the best rate since the Clinton years. However, most are living paycheck to paycheck. Some benefit from the $35 insulin. Many farmers are "burdened" by regulation due to climate legislation, not realizing we must move forward as we did from horse to tractor. And, yet, through all this, our area is ignored because we are not a swing state. Even our own Senators seldom visit this part of the state. Hence, those who feel left behind. I'm sure this happens in swing states, too. Sorry....I digress.
Again, thank you for your articles, Joyce. I have been following you and Barbara McQuade for a long time. You both are a credit to your profession. I am a true believer that Education is the key to saving our Democracy.
Excellent article! I'm so glad you picked this topic, as the myth of the young voter being the Democratic Party's savior is pretty widespread (and I've even seen it brought up with 2022, as well). If Biden does win this fall, the elderly vote, particularly in MI, PA, and WI, will very likely have been the reason. Again, great analysis here!
Thanks Brad! I didn't intend on writing this, I just started looking into it out of curiosity, and the pattern popped out at me, so it compelled me to dig further. I worked pretty hard on it, and am proud of it, so I'm very glad you enjoyed and appreciated it!
This was an good read and I appreciate your break down. My question is about the polls. They are touted so often but I don't think they are valid. Many people don't have landlines and with cellphones, few people pick up an unknown number or phone companies treat them as scams. Do you think there are a lot of people out there - all ages - just doing their lives trying to stay up - and are silent? They know their minds, will vote accordingly and the truth will only be known in January 2025 when the election is certified?
Good question. I have wondered the same.