The best bet we have right now is if that infernal big ugly bill does not get passed. If it is, there will absolutely be no mid terms because among its other destructions is the granting to Trump the ability to cancel or postpone elections. Communicate to every senator you can that this bill is death to both people, due to its safety net cuts, and democracy, due to the possibility of granting the election power and granting a sort of immunity for him and his cabinet from judicial contempt. We need to right even harder than we already have. The stakes are higher than ever.
I’m trying to focus on local issues because I have no faith in the democrats doing anything at the national level to stop Trump and his cronies. Republicans are at the beginning of a half century of dominance. At which point climate change-fomented wars and storms will have destroyed civilization as we know it.
I'm a bit more optimistic than you. I think conservatism and anti-government sentiment has been the dominant ideology for about half a century, and it currently peaking. When we are through the MAGA era, national sentiment will change back to wanting bigger government for all citizens, because MAGA will show us how much we actually rely on it and how helpful it is.
Right now, Real Clear Politics has Trump 4 pts more favorable than just before the 2018 and 3 points more than just before the 2020 election. He is viewed about as favorably as just before the 2024 election. These polls argue against a Blue wave in 2026.
It is still early, and the economy may go downhill. But the stock market is up over the last month and year, while down over the last 5 days and flat over 6 months, which strikes me as a neutral reading.
So far, for all the attention, the tariffs have yet to make a big splash. and it is approaching 8 weeks since Liberation day. Inflation is still low. GDP growth was flat 1st quarter, so there's that, but overall a very mixed view.
First, why compare Trump's approval now with just before 2018 and 2020 elections? Those approval ratings were after 2 and 4 years of experience with Trump, those elections were referenda on him, and he got walloped in both. So of course his approval now, 4 mos after taking office, is better than at those times. Those were his lowest points. And it's already gone from positive net territory to negative since he took office, so not exactly a ringing endorsement by the public.
Second, yes the stock market is up over the last month and year, but those are arbitrary milestones. It's down since he took office--wasn't everyone supposed to be exhilarated that he was president again? And even if the markets were neutral it doesn't really indicate the sentiment of the population. We can look to consumer sentiment and consumer confidence readings for that, and they are both abysmal, and have plummeted since he took office.
And lastly, tariffs take some time to take effect. Once the inventory that was ordered pre-"Liberation Day" gets sold, the post-tariff inventory starts, and that's where we'll see the effects. Walmart has already told investors price hikes are coming in June. That's when everyone, including MAGA cultists, will notice.
This isn't to say your point of view is wrong. It's just that your specific points aren't the strongest in favor of it, IMO. If you're trying to say his disapproval isn't that bad, I disagree, but you're right in the sense it's too early to tell. But that's kind of the point of my post, that the trend is not good for him, and can it continue?
[Thinker] I have to quibble with you here: First, why compare Trump's approval now with just before 2018 and 2020 elections?
[Mike] I also compared it to his approval before the 2024 election. The reason for the three comparisons is to not the correlation between the poll results and actual electoral results to show when Trumps popularity was lower than now, he lost, and when it was the same he won. The implication is were the election held today. Trump would do well.
[Thinker]Those approval ratings were after 2 and 4 years of experience with Trump, those elections were referenda on him, and he got walloped in both. So of course his approval now, 4 mos after taking office, is better than at those times. Those were his lowest points.
[Mike]There were not his lowest points. Prior to the 2020 election his popularity had recovered 3 pts from its low at the beginning of the year. Despite that he lost. In contrast in 2012 Obama managed to boost his popularity by 5 pts from the beginning of the year to win his reelection.
[Thinker]And it's already gone from positive net territory to negative since he took office, so not exactly a ringing endorsement by the public.
{Mike] Yes, but his recent popularity is higher than anything he saw in his first term. I find it worrisome that despite all he has done his popularity is still at levels consistent with electoral victory. The issue isn’t electoral. Assuming we continue to have fair and free elections, Trump’s party will lose in 2028, this is already clear to me. As long as Trump’s popularity is within the range consistent with previous victories, he will not become a lame duck and lose his mojo. Until that happens he can do a lot of damage.
[Thinker]Second, yes the stock market is up over the last month and year, but those are arbitrary milestones. It's down since he took office--wasn't everyone supposed to be exhilarated that he was president again? And even if the markets were neutral it doesn't really indicate the sentiment of the population. We can look to consumer sentiment and consumer confidence readings for that, and they are both abysmal, and have plummeted since he took office.
[Mike] Yes, the indicators are mixed. I would prefer a more negative signal, for the same reasons as given above.
[Thinker]And lastly, tariffs take some time to take effect. Once the inventory that was ordered pre-"Liberation Day" gets sold, the post-tariff inventory starts, and that's where we'll see the effects. Walmart has already told investors price hikes are coming in June. That's when everyone, including MAGA cultists, will notice.
The best bet we have right now is if that infernal big ugly bill does not get passed. If it is, there will absolutely be no mid terms because among its other destructions is the granting to Trump the ability to cancel or postpone elections. Communicate to every senator you can that this bill is death to both people, due to its safety net cuts, and democracy, due to the possibility of granting the election power and granting a sort of immunity for him and his cabinet from judicial contempt. We need to right even harder than we already have. The stakes are higher than ever.
I’m trying to focus on local issues because I have no faith in the democrats doing anything at the national level to stop Trump and his cronies. Republicans are at the beginning of a half century of dominance. At which point climate change-fomented wars and storms will have destroyed civilization as we know it.
I'm a bit more optimistic than you. I think conservatism and anti-government sentiment has been the dominant ideology for about half a century, and it currently peaking. When we are through the MAGA era, national sentiment will change back to wanting bigger government for all citizens, because MAGA will show us how much we actually rely on it and how helpful it is.
He is a media spaz. He has no plan no convictions. No morals. No scruples. Just a taco.
Right now, Real Clear Politics has Trump 4 pts more favorable than just before the 2018 and 3 points more than just before the 2020 election. He is viewed about as favorably as just before the 2024 election. These polls argue against a Blue wave in 2026.
It is still early, and the economy may go downhill. But the stock market is up over the last month and year, while down over the last 5 days and flat over 6 months, which strikes me as a neutral reading.
So far, for all the attention, the tariffs have yet to make a big splash. and it is approaching 8 weeks since Liberation day. Inflation is still low. GDP growth was flat 1st quarter, so there's that, but overall a very mixed view.
I have to quibble with you here:
First, why compare Trump's approval now with just before 2018 and 2020 elections? Those approval ratings were after 2 and 4 years of experience with Trump, those elections were referenda on him, and he got walloped in both. So of course his approval now, 4 mos after taking office, is better than at those times. Those were his lowest points. And it's already gone from positive net territory to negative since he took office, so not exactly a ringing endorsement by the public.
Second, yes the stock market is up over the last month and year, but those are arbitrary milestones. It's down since he took office--wasn't everyone supposed to be exhilarated that he was president again? And even if the markets were neutral it doesn't really indicate the sentiment of the population. We can look to consumer sentiment and consumer confidence readings for that, and they are both abysmal, and have plummeted since he took office.
And lastly, tariffs take some time to take effect. Once the inventory that was ordered pre-"Liberation Day" gets sold, the post-tariff inventory starts, and that's where we'll see the effects. Walmart has already told investors price hikes are coming in June. That's when everyone, including MAGA cultists, will notice.
This isn't to say your point of view is wrong. It's just that your specific points aren't the strongest in favor of it, IMO. If you're trying to say his disapproval isn't that bad, I disagree, but you're right in the sense it's too early to tell. But that's kind of the point of my post, that the trend is not good for him, and can it continue?
[Thinker] I have to quibble with you here: First, why compare Trump's approval now with just before 2018 and 2020 elections?
[Mike] I also compared it to his approval before the 2024 election. The reason for the three comparisons is to not the correlation between the poll results and actual electoral results to show when Trumps popularity was lower than now, he lost, and when it was the same he won. The implication is were the election held today. Trump would do well.
[Thinker]Those approval ratings were after 2 and 4 years of experience with Trump, those elections were referenda on him, and he got walloped in both. So of course his approval now, 4 mos after taking office, is better than at those times. Those were his lowest points.
[Mike]There were not his lowest points. Prior to the 2020 election his popularity had recovered 3 pts from its low at the beginning of the year. Despite that he lost. In contrast in 2012 Obama managed to boost his popularity by 5 pts from the beginning of the year to win his reelection.
[Thinker]And it's already gone from positive net territory to negative since he took office, so not exactly a ringing endorsement by the public.
{Mike] Yes, but his recent popularity is higher than anything he saw in his first term. I find it worrisome that despite all he has done his popularity is still at levels consistent with electoral victory. The issue isn’t electoral. Assuming we continue to have fair and free elections, Trump’s party will lose in 2028, this is already clear to me. As long as Trump’s popularity is within the range consistent with previous victories, he will not become a lame duck and lose his mojo. Until that happens he can do a lot of damage.
[Thinker]Second, yes the stock market is up over the last month and year, but those are arbitrary milestones. It's down since he took office--wasn't everyone supposed to be exhilarated that he was president again? And even if the markets were neutral it doesn't really indicate the sentiment of the population. We can look to consumer sentiment and consumer confidence readings for that, and they are both abysmal, and have plummeted since he took office.
[Mike] Yes, the indicators are mixed. I would prefer a more negative signal, for the same reasons as given above.
[Thinker]And lastly, tariffs take some time to take effect. Once the inventory that was ordered pre-"Liberation Day" gets sold, the post-tariff inventory starts, and that's where we'll see the effects. Walmart has already told investors price hikes are coming in June. That's when everyone, including MAGA cultists, will notice.
[Mike] I hope so.