Debate Analysis: Biden May Be Old, But Trump's Shtick is Tired

Yes, the debate was ugly. No, there's no reason to panic

Yes, Biden did a bad job. It was actually kind of weird. There was a news report that he had a cold or something. If that’s true, it makes sense. Especially at the beginning, his voice was soft and raspy, and he had trouble making the most simplistic talking points. He had a bad night. I’m sure he didn’t allay Democrats’ fears of Biden’s age and toughness for a presidential campaign.

Bus the debate went on, these things got better. Biden livened up, his voice got stronger, and his communication clearer and more coherent. But even at his best, he was not the Joe he’s been in recent speeches and public appearances.

So, yes, this was a bummer.

Trump, conversely, came of like a semi-coherent hinged (or whatever the opposite of “unhinged” is) person, not the manic, slurring lunatic that we’ve seen in most of his recent speeches and public appearances, but mostly at the beginning of the debate. By the end, he was becoming more of the above, without the sweating.

Again, a bummer; a disorienting bummer.

But the expectations bar for Biden was extraordinarily high and the bar for Trump couldn’t have been lower. Therefore, Biden seemed to “lose” this debate. I’m willing to concede that to whomever insists, although I think it was more of a tie, or even a forfeit for both candidates.

And it was an excellent example of how poor debates are at showcasing anything of real substance that is important to being President. I’ve never been a fan of debates. When I first started watching them as I was becoming more interested in politics, they bored me. Usually, both candidates spew out memorized stats, attempt to get some sharp and witty criticisms in, and hope they can muster a quote that will be considered an historically important turning point in the campaign (Note: these are extremely rare).

Everyone that is feeling down about last night’s debate because of Biden’s performance, including myself, is unconsciously admitting that the “show” matters. Optics are more important that substance. Our politics is truly now a reality show.

To some degree, this is true. At least, many politicians act that way, especially on the right. The desperate craven attempts at leveraging optics is mostly a right-wing phenomena, and they are pretty good at it, good enough to be viable at this point in our history.

The left understands this, even while being not good at optics. Therefore, they fall into the trap of worrying about optics even though it is not a strong point in their strategy for winning.

As the right hammers the optics into our eyeballs and brains, the left worries and covers its eyes, occasionally trying to put padding down to soften the blow.

Therefore, the left is panicking. They wanted Biden to look strong, to throw down some zingers, to put Trump in his place…even humiliate him in front of a wide audience. He didn’t do that. In fact, he struggled to seem like he could even debate well, much less mop the floor with Trump, especially early on.

But Trump didn’t win the optics battle, either. He proved he’s now just a vessel for a tired shtick that even he looks bored of, that of the autocratic populist. I believe this partly due to my own intuition, but there are a couple important data points that back this up.

For example, there’s very few MAGA social media accounts bragging about Trump’s performance, or showing clips where he was perceived to have bested Biden to potentially spark viral moments. Again, because of the right’s obsession with optics, they would not have hesitated to highlight any perceived takedown of Biden, no matter how small. So far, it’s been mostly crickets, or highlighting Biden’s failures or age, just as the left is doing. In fact, since they hyped up the narrative so intensely that Trump was certain to lose the debate because Biden would be juiced up and the moderators would be in the bag for Biden that they don’t really even know what to say the morning after. It’s been remarkable.

The other data point is, in a recent Fox News poll—the one that had Biden up by two points and therefore drew the wrath of Trump and MAGA world—there was a very curious result, one that I’ll probably be writing a full post about in the near future. Biden led 50%-47% in respondents that picked which candidate they believe will do a better job on “stability and normalcy,” a curious result given the choices

The labels of “stability and normalcy” are a bit vague, and it’s hard to know exactly what respondents are thinking when they answer. But considering that many peoples’ attraction to Trump was his ability to “blow up” the current system of government and “shake things up”, I’m not so sure it’s a good thing for him that he’s polling this close to Biden on these things. If anything, this shows that his brand of politics is now embedded in the system, and he’s officially part of the establishment he was meant to disrupt.

This would mean that his incontinent lying and penchant for insults and indecency are a big whopping yawner now. And they are. When you watch him talk, one is struck by the repetitive nature of it all, even in novel subjects. It’s the same tired old spiel that seemed so groundbreaking in 2015 and 2016m but has not aged well. Yes, we get it, you are the best ever, and Joe Biden is the worst ever. He’s allowing millions of prisoners and terrorists into our country on a monthly basis and they bad, bad people. Wink, wink. In the meantime, crime is plummeting and there’s been no terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, as the economy grows and is the envy of the entire world.

This debate highlighted this for Trump, and to his detriment, is showed that he is now the worst thing he could imagine being….boring.

We already knew Joe Biden was a bit boring. This one reason why he was elected in the first place. It’s also why the left was so anxious for him to show that he has fight and vigor in him. In case you didn’t know, the left is a bit neurotic. But Biden can overcome a weak night’s performance.

If Trump is now boring and coming off as the same-old, same-old, then he’s going to lose those that might have been geared up for the populist revolution they were hoping for. They are not necessarily going to vote for Biden, but they might vote for RFK, Jr., or not vote at all. Biden wins handily in this scenario.

The takeaway here is those on the left need to relax and regroup. Candidates make mistakes and take hits all the time. Age has become a sensitive wedge issue on the left, and the pendulum has swung over to ageism as a result of last night’s debate, but remember that this is just one data point over what are hundreds, if not thousands, of upcoming data points.

This will be in the news cycle for a day or two, then some events will replace it, such as upcoming Supreme Court rulings, and then other events will replace those events, and on and on and on. And in the meantime, Trump’s sentencing date will occur, as will potentially his Jan 6 trial, even if it’s not finalized with a verdict before the election. Plus, he’s going to keep talking at his rallies, where he comes off as an unhinged lunatic the most.

No presidential election has ever truly swung on one debate. Trump notoriously performs poorly at debates; so much so that his minions had to make excuses for him losing this one before it ever happened. Yet he has won the presidency.

Last night’s debate is not a harbinger of things to come. It was a disappointing night in one of the longest and weirdest presidential campaigns ever. Would you really rather be Trump at this point in the campaign?

CNN’s debate format

I think I’m in the minority here, but I actually really liked the debate format, with the strict timing of answer and response periods and the muting of candidates. It did exactly what was intended: to keep the debate disciplined and not allow it to turn into a shitshow.

It accomplished something that I was skeptical would be achieved: it neutered Donald Trump. And he sheepishly conformed. It forced him to be more “normal” that he really wanted to be. That could not have impressed his MAGA base, and is probably another reason why they are not showing Trump clips all over social media the day after.

And as far as the criticism that the CNN moderators didn’t fact check Trump in real time….so what? Just let the guy talk. His lies and hyperbole are so excessive that most of what he says will be laughed at anyway (does anyone really believe that experts say that Biden’s presidency is the worst ever and Trump’s is the best ever?). The moderators’ job is to moderate, to keep the debate moving, something which has been impossible in the past with an outwardly petulant Trump.

I particularly loved how they just repeated the question over and over if the candidate did not answer the question and there was remaining time for them to talk. This showcased Trump’s incompetence repeatedly, as he rarely answered the questions while going off on his tangents, and then finally was awkwardly forced to answer them in the remaining 15 seconds or so of his time. Honestly, I thought that was brilliant. And I’m not a CNN or Jake Tapper or Dana Bash enthusiast.

It was frustrating that Biden wasn’t better, because this was an ideal situation for him to do his own fact-checking, as he was guaranteed to have an interruption-free response. He got a few good responses in, especially late. But overall, this format works to his advantage, and should there be another debate, I hope it is in a similar format.