With Her VP Pick, Harris is Choosing a Narrative as Much as a Person

What story does she want to tell America? Here are the possibilities.

Something that is important when considering a VP is not just the political skills or electoral advantage that the person brings, but what narrative one can construct with that person. This may not be the focus of the nominee when they are considering their choice, but the result is usually that a narrative develops and sticks, for better or worse.

So I want to focus on the narrative possibilities with each of her top potential running mates, while considering the other traditional aspects as well. The potential narratives are bountiful with this crop of candidates, all of them favorable to Harris and her ticket when compared to Trump and Vance.

The narrative of Trump and Vance is one of anger, darkness, and retribution. That needs to be countered with a more positive and hopeful narrative.

The narrative of Biden was wisdom and stability. Definitely a contrast worthy of a battle, but perhaps not the most energizing or exciting contrast for Harris voters.

Harris has many features with which her campaign has been described and she can emphasize any one of them she sees fit. Below are my takes on whom she can pick to emphasize such narratives, their strengths and weaknesses, my personal preference of who I’d like to see her pick, and then my prediction about who she will pick.

The Joy Ticket

Tim Walz, Governor, Minnesota. For the Joy narrative, Harris has to go with Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. Do any of the other candidates exude pure joy more than this guy?

The image of him being hugged by smiling school children after signing a bill for free school meals displays his joyous demeanor and the effect was striking. Was this a staged, opportunistic exhibition? Perhaps, but so what? It’s still a welcome contrast to the staged Trump strongman exhibition that we’ve been subjected to for years now. It’s definitely nice to see someone actively trying to turn the political mood around. Plus, he doesn’t come off as staged; he’s one of the more authentic-seeming candidates in consideration.

This would perhaps be the biggest contrast to the Trump/Vance narrative, and the starkness of it would be very effective. Walz is kind of like your nice grandpa and Santa Claus all rolled into one. His policies are typical left-wing Democrat policies, and he will be labelled a “Marxist” for that. But he won’t care, and will smile as he explains and defends them, and gently “shoos away” his detractors. His demeanor should neutralize many of the worst attacks.

Also, he appears to be the one that coined the elegantly simple and now-popular moniker “Weird” when describing MAGA that has been spreading like wildfire. This label works well, because it’s a way to effectively ostracize MAGA without inciting fear or hate, to express wanting to move on from an ideology without suggesting we eradicate those who believe in it. It’s a benign way to encourage others to rethink their allegiance to MAGA. And it’s working, as MAGA reaction to it suggests it’s getting under their skin.

He doesn’t bring much from an Electoral College perspective, except maybe to keep Minnesota from a shock move to the right, but that is very unlikely anyway. This unlikelihood is also why this isn’t a bad pick; it’s a pretty safe blue state, so removing him from that his governor’s seat shouldn’t upset the status quo, and therefore is very low-risk proposition.

One thing I’ve heard is that he’s too old to be on the ticket with Harris, with her being the youthful candidate. I don’t buy into this too much, as he’s only 6 months older than Harris, and they’re both 60 (Harris will turn 60 in Oct), which isn’t exactly young, but seems young these days, especially when compared to Trump. Walz does look older with his gray hair in a bowl around his bald head, but his joyful demeanor offsets this and gives off youthful vibes.

The Big Tent Ticket

Andy Beshear, Governor, Kentucky. Why is this the “Big Tent” narrative? Because, of all the demographics, southern rural white males are becoming the most endangered for the Democratic Party. Beshear is that rarest of politician, a rural white male Democrat being voted into power in a deeply red state. Adding Beshear would emphasize that all are welcome in the Democratic vision for the country.

This narrative would be especially effective with Harris, who is a woman of color and multiracial heritage. It would propel the party and the country into the future, while giving permission for white rural men to consider climbing on board.

It’s hard to say how effective this would be in reality, but it would certainly give the impression of acceptance and unity, which could be energizing, and perhaps steal some votes away from any rural whites that would never consider themselves Democrats, but find Trump morally and personally repugnant.

Beshear would not bring any Electoral College advantages, and the Kentucky governorship would almost assuredly flip to Republican without him. But Kentucky is a lost cause for Democrats anyway, at least in the short term. Beshear can’t run for any more terms for Governor, but he could shoot for a Senate seat in the future if, God forbid, Harris and he lost, and we are still electing leaders after 2024.

This pick would be a national play for a demographic. If it did work, it can work across many states, and perhaps help keep Georgia blue, or even flip a new southern state to blue, such as North Carolina or Florida, or both. Even the battleground states could be affected positively; most of them are not southern states, but there are plenty of white rural males in them that could push Harris to decisive victories.

That said, it would still be risky. I don’t have any inside knowledge or access to internal polling, but it seems unlikely that there will be a tidal wave of rural white men voting based on these considerations. But I’ll admit, I’d love to see this experiment play out.

The Fight Ticket

Josh Shapiro, Governor, Pennsylvania. Of all the candidates, Shapiro is the one that comes off the most like a fighter. His rhetoric is tough, but not dark. He pushes back forcefully and very effectively on the denigration that MAGA lays on today’s America with their grievance politics. He is the most rhetorically talented defender of America against the MAGA attacks of all the candidate.

In addition, he won the election for Pennsylvania’s Governor by a landslide, and has been a vocal, effective, and efficient executive. I wrote about him and John Fetterman several months ago as the leaders of a new Democratic populist movement, and gave examples of how each of them have been effective populist campaigners and leaders. You can read about that here. (this link is archived-paywalled, but let me know via direct message if you are interested in reading it and I’ll unlock it for you).

The point is that he looks and sounds like an everyman populist, but not one you have to be scared of. He’s one that fights to make government effective for the average person. This could be a huge advantage in warding off MAGA’s attacks and creating energy and excitement, not just among the Democratic base, but anyone that is sick and tired of MAGA. Democrats are always saying they wish they had a fighter; well, that’s exactly what Shapiro is.

In addition, he would help Electoral College-wise by ensuring that Pennsylvania stays in blue this election. He’s very popular in the state, and giving him a chance to elevate to the next level could bring out some voters that might otherwise stay home. The winning margin for Democrats this time around could be quite lopsided with Shapiro on the ticket.

The downside to Shapiro is that once he leaves it opens the door for a messy state government resolution. When he resigns, the current Lt. Gov will become the governor and serve out Shapiro’s term, which ends in 2027, and then the State Senate President Pro Tem would become the new Lt. Gov. Currently the Pennsylvania State Senate is under Republican control, so the top two of the executives of the state could be split between a Democrat and Republican.

On the other hand, if the State Senate were to flip to Democratic control in the upcoming November election, then the timing of the office transitions would be such that a new Democratic Senate President Pro Tem would become the new Lt. Gov., which would ensure unified party control. But with a current advantage of 28-22, Republicans seem likely to hold on to their control of the state Senate.

Given its importance in the Electoral College, and the behavior recently by state Republicans, it would be tough to swallow ceding any power to Republicans in the near future. The question would be if Shapiro’s talent and electoral advantages outweigh the risks of potentially ceding this power.

Also, even though Shapiro seems like he’s ready for the national stage, he may not be. He’s only been governor for two years. That said, he’s been a successful politician for 20 years, having gotten elected into the state government in 2004, and was Attorney General for 6 years before running for Governor. As state AG he rose to national stardom with his vocal defense of the voters in his state during the 2020 election and aftermath, and he proved to be a hopeful bright light in the darkness of MAGA’s attempts at vote-cancellation.

The Communication/Generational Ticket

Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transporation. Of all the candidates, Buttigieg is probably the most polished communicator, the best pure politician of the bunch. He is the master of plainly and clearly explaining a position and diffusing harsh criticisms of his and his current boss’ policies. In addition, he’s very young and would represent a seismic generational shift, which may be what our politics needs right now.

He has a soft-spoken demeanor, but is tough and fearless. He is a combat veteran, after all, so why would he be afraid of a few tough questions from Fox News anchors? He’s probably the best the Democrats have right now at going into hostile political territory, like Fox News, and standing his ground to make his case, without coming off like a defensive prick. He can explain things to anyone in a calm, rational manner in any setting.

But being a great politician can also be a detriment, as Americans love their genuine personality types. Say what you will about Trump or Biden, but they were about as genuine and authentic as they come these days. This is one big reason why Biden was such a great counter to Trump. Buttigieg is more of an Al Gore wonky type. He’d probably lose the “beer test” in most cases (who’d you rather have beer with), but at the same time he’s really hard to not like or admire.

The question is, is he persuasive and inspiring enough to actually make undecideds vote for Harris? And does he create excitement and energy among the diverse Democrat base? The fact that he’s gay could bring some excitement to some of the more marginalized communities out there, but he has a history of not attracting Black support.

But it’s hard to know for sure, which is why he’s a risky pick. He’s proven he’s ready for prime time. He doesn’t seem quite as robotic as he did in 2020 when he was running for President. His appeal is higher now than it was then, and should only get better the longer he sticks with the politician gig. If you want a persuasive generational-transitioning communicator wunderkind as a running mate, Buttigieg is the obvious choice. Plus, you lose no Electoral College or state government advantage, as he’d be removed from the Secretary of Transportation position.

That said, if you’re trying to save democracy in America in 2024, you may not want to go with the communication/generational narrative. Getting people stirred up with emotions may be the best bet, and Pete is less likely to do that. That said, he’s probably the best surrogate that Democrats have out there, and he’s a great one to have on your side during this election cycle. It may be best to keep him in that role for now and continue polishing himself up a bit to seem more authentic, with the expectation that he’ll be needed to beat Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in 2032.

The Competency/Normalcy Ticket

Mark Kelly, Senator, Arizona. Kelly currently has the highest favorability of all the candidates, according to some ratings, but this is a sketchy measurement when a plurality of respondents hasn’t actually heard of the person, which is the case with Kelly and most of the others.

He’s also a highly accomplished individual, having been a Navy Captain and long-time astronaut. But his political life has been very short, he was just elected to the Senate in 2020, which is the only political office he’s held.

That said, Americans would probably feel like they could sleep more soundly with a governing team that included Kelly. He’s a strong, fearless leader, and comes off like a very competent, normal, and nice man; one you could be proud of in the VP position. Plus, he’s been one of the more vocal Democratic members of Congress to push for stricter border enforcement, which could counter any accusations against Harris of being soft on the border. This, plus his being from the swing state of Arizona, are big potential strengths.

His weaknesses are that he’s not known for being a great communicator that will particularly connect, excite, or inspire large blocs of people with his personality or rhetoric. The point of Kelly would be more about feeling secure and confident in the abilities and temperament of the team to run the government. So, again, as in the Buttigieg—or even Biden previously—argument, is this the best way to go when you need to rile up people to vote for saving Democracy?

Plus, by leaving his Seante seat, it puts it a risk of flipping earlier than it would normally, forcing a special election in 2026, instead of the usual new term election in 2028. It’s a large risk to take when control of the Senate is more important than ever, especially if Harris wins, as she’ll need all the help she can get with passing much-needed legislation and confirming more moderate or progressive judges to the judiciary.

The Fearless Future Ticket (or the Change Ticket)

Gretchen Whitmer, Governor, Michigan. Not much could scream “Change!” louder than Whitmer joining Harris atop the ticket her as the VP candidate. This pick could excite lot of people as it would create a very stark contrast to Trump and Vance, and just lay it on the line to make people commit to moving full steam ahead into the future. It would dare people to obstruct such a monumental change. A two-woman ticket definitely connotes change and hope, which, as we know, are two very powerful sentiments in politics.

Whitmer as a politician is not particularly fiery or inspiring, but she’s just fiery and inspiring enough to create excitement above and beyond her being part of the first all-female ticket. She’s polished and capable, seems ready for prime time, and would be a valuable youthful voice in this election cycle.

Whitmer would have the same type of advantage that Shapiro has from an Electoral College perspective. She could help keep Michigan blue and increase the margins there to make it a near-unassailable victory. Buta big difference would be that Democrats currently control the whole government, so they would hold onto all aspects of the executive branch. And the new governor would simply serve out the Whitmer’s current term.

This would be a high-risk, high-reward ticket. It’s hard to say how the whole electorate would react to an all-female ticket, especially men. I could see it having either effect for either party, heightening or lowering their chances. I think Dems would win comfortably with this ticket, but, again, the main consideration is if it’s worth the risk.

The Electoral Ticket

Roy Cooper, Governor, North Carolina. I had to put Roy Cooper on here somewhere, but struggled about what his narrative is. The bottom line is that he’s a candidate because he’s a capable popular Democrat in a southern state, and could help flip his home state of North Carolina to blue, which would be a huge get, and would probably win Harris the election.

But other than the fact that he may help North Carolina swing back into the Democrat’s column, I can’t think of a compelling reason to pick him. He’s on the old side, at 67 years of age. If youth and change is something Democrats are trying to present to the country, Cooper isn’t the best choice.

Other than being a relatively moderate white southern male that might have the potential Beshear effect of giving permission to other white southern males to vote for Harris, the Electoral College advantage with Cooper is really the top consideration. And it is a powerful one.

But I think getting someone that appeals more to emotion on a national level is the best bet for Harris, and Cooper wouldn’t be that person.

(NOTE: just before publication of this post, Cooper officially withdrew his candidacy. Despite this, I thought it would be fine to include my thoughts on him).

Who I Would Like to See Harris Pick as VP

Personally, my favorite is Josh Shapiro. I think Democrats need a fierce fighter and emotion-stirrer to counter MAGA’s relentless viciousness, and Shapiro would be this person. He’s a populist, but not a MAGA style revenge-populist. He actually makes people feel positive and good about America’s potential when he vociferously touts America’s strengths and what government can do to improve people’s lives.

He would be a bit of a risk, because it’s possible he may not be quite ready. But I think he is ready and worth the risk, he’s been primed for this since 2020 during Trump’s attempts to steal the election, when he was showcased often in interviews on national news networks. I could tell then that he was probably a future presidential candidate, and this could be his big national moment.

I’ve heard some rumblings that he’s a bit too shout-y and loud and a bit of an overperformer. Perhaps. But I think it plays well, and I’m fine with loud, rousing speeches if it keeps people awake and energized.

And I’m not too worried about the Pennsylvania state government issues with him leaving. The governorship would remain in Democratic hands, and the Republicans in the state have been so extreme lately, it’s unlikely to shift soon. And even if Democrats don’t take the State Senate and there’s a Republican Lt. Gov., Democrats still have the momentum and can win a full Democrat ticket the next election.

Who I think Harris Will Pick as VP

I think Harris is going to go with a full-on joy narrative and choose Tim Walz. Even with my preference being Shapiro, Walz is my second choice, and I think this would be a great approach and will work well. Diffusing the anxiety surrounding Trump and MAGA with joy, and affixing to them the label of “weird” is an effective way to ward off their approaches and gives the country a completely different angle to work with that it’s thirsting for.

Walz would offer a welcome new positive outlook and mood to contrast the “America in decline” narrative that Trump and MAGA spout constantly. Voting against Walz would be like voting against Santa Claus….and what kind of sick asshole would do that?

Embarrassment of Riches

The fact it, the Democrats have so many good options, that it’s going to be hard to go wrong here. All of them provide differing narrative viewpoints that should play well with an electorate that is tired of divisive negativity and insults. It will be very difficult to decide who to go with.

So, for once, in a political era of slim margins of survivable error, Democrats are experiencing a great problem to have.