What if Nikki Haley Competes in the Early Primaries?

It may do almost as much damage to Trump as if he lost the nomination

Donald Trump’s road to the Republican nomination is very unique in history. Very few people have run for President in a major party after previously being President and losing a subsequent Presidential election as the incumbent. The last time it happened was Grover Cleveland in the election of 1892, so before the era of the automobile.

When you add this to the uniqueness of Trump himself as a “messianic” political figure and stalwart MAGA cult leader, you have a scenario that has never been studied before, and therefore not understood. Throw other factors into the mix, such as Trump’s proven ability to shed previous norms and expectations and remain viable, and you have a perfect storm of unpredictable energy, altering the usual states of reality.

On the other hand, at this point, there is almost a decade-long history of Trump political behavior and techniques to look at, which originally seemed like unsuspecting political ingeniousness when applied to an up-and-comer David competing against the establishment Goliath. These days, it’s questionable at best if those same techniques will work when he essentially is now part of the establishment Goliath.

Trump is, for all practical purposes, the Republican incumbent. In my previous article “The Time is Now for the Republicans to Get Serious” I wrote about how I believe that Trump is actually looking like a fairly weak candidate, when you apply the incumbency label to him, which I believe we should. But I didn’t explore how this weakness might look as it plays out. That’s the inspiration for this writing.

We know that Trump is shameless, hypocritical, and boisterous, and that he will use whatever tool he thinks is necessary to damage and humiliate his opponents, real or perceived. Also, we know that anyone or anything that might cause him to be perceived as weak or vulnerable with get the brunt of the tinkering with these tools. So far in his current run for the Republican nomination, he has mostly dominated the opinion polling to determine the frontrunner, except for one person: Ron DeSantis.

True to form, Trump pulled no punches in his attempted degradation of DeSantis’ candidacy, posting on his social media platform all kinds of insults and attacks. DeSantis’ stock has since been falling like the sweat off an alligator’s privates in the Florida swamps. Whether this is because of Trump’s attacks or DeSantis’ own inherent weaknesses is impossible to determine; it was probably a combination. But either way, DeSantis is in a much less threatening position now.

But during these Trump attacks, something did seem off. Just the fact that he was attacking DeSantis, or rather that he had to attack him, was notable in its novelty. Trump obviously perceived himself to be in danger of not achieving the Republican party’s nomination, to which he should essentially be the anointed due to his status as the incumbent.

One could argue that none of this matters, DeSantis has been removed as a threat, and Trump has established himself as the frontrunner as time went on. But has he? He was barely securing the majority in the Republican polling at that time, although holding dominant leads over the other candidates. But that’s roughly where he’s at now…barely holding the majority. It varies from state to state, but the picture that’s painted is similar across them, especially in the early, more influential states, and a general national poll.

And now, as we approach the first primaries and actual voting, another threat has emerged: Nikki Haley. If you don’t believe Haley is truly a threat, look to Trump himself. Just recently, on Monday January 9, Trump posted a conspiracy theory that Haley is not eligible to be President or Vice President due to being born to non-citizens. Trump must perceive her as being a threat if he’s going to viciously attack in this manner. He likely is aware of the polling in New Hampshire, the 2nd primary state, that shows Haley in a close, or at least viable, 2nd place.

But doesn’t this make him look weak? Putting aside the incredible irony of Trump attempting to use the Constitution’s presidential qualification language to disqualify a political opponent while himself being subject to ballot access trials of the same, this is remarkably lame. He made a name for himself attacking Obama with his “birther” conspiracies, which was politically powerful stuff at that time. Obama was a popular Democratic African-American President and was sealed into the fabric of the Establishment. He even made similar claims about Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who forgettably defeated Trump soundly in the 2016 Iowa Caucus, when he tried to raise doubts about Cruz’s qualifications while posting about Cruz being born in Canada to U.S. citizens. Punching up in this manner was exciting and cathartic for many people, and sure enough proved to be the basis for a new powerful political movement that ushered Trump into the Oval Office.

But now, as the Republican incumbent and torch-bearer for the party, this seems pathetic. Sure, his voter base loves it, it’s red meat for MAGA sharks. But for everyone else, it is hard for it not to be perceived as different degrees of weak, the higher the degree being directly proportional to where one stands on the political spectrum. It’s an interesting juxtaposition of Trump avoiding all the Republican debates and yet getting into the weeds of a competitive campaign. It’s just not the sophisticated, confident behavior of a sure nominee.

This punching down, which Trump has never been shy about doing, just looks bad for anyone, especially the all-powerful Republican messiah. There’s a reason that Joe Biden does not acknowledge, much less attack, Dean Phillips (if you don’t know who that is, see here). It’s because Phillips isn’t a threat, and Biden, as the Democratic incumbent, wouldn’t want to be seen as needing to beat back a threat.

As of this writing, we’re just several days from the Iowa caucuses, Trump has a commanding lead in the polls, and seems to be on his way to winning comfortably. And yet, based on a couple of NH primary polls, he’s resorting to extreme birther conspiracy tactics again, the desperate tools of the underdog. Again, cute, exciting and effective in 2016….much more pathetic and off-putting in 2024.

The very intriguing thing is what this portends for the rest of the primary season. If Haley actually has staying power, and gives Trump some competition, he’ll be perceived as weak and have to resort to more of these tactics, which will further the perception of him being weak….and on and on.

Republicans supporting Trump want to focus on the heavyweight battle between him and Joe Biden. What they may get is a battle for Trump’s political life with Haley for the Republican nomination. Any time and energy spent on Haley is less time and energy spent on Biden and the Big Prize. It would already be a political disaster, but when you take into account his proclivity for conspiracies, classless insults, and fervently nutty behavior, and you have a perfect storm where a lot of damage can be done, even if he gets the nomination somewhat comfortably.

And this does not take into account the money he’ll be likely spending on attack ads and campaign activity in NH and South Carolina, another early state that Haley has been polling a strong 2nd in. This, combined with the campaign money he’s probably spending on his legal defenses, will render his campaign limp and ineffective if he manages to make the general election at all. Any money spent now trying to fend off the perception that he’s vulnerable is less money available to spend in the general election. This is why political strategists don’t want to waste money on campaigns that are lost causes, as those resources are better put to use in competitive contests that are winnable.

The more competitive the Republican nomination race is, the more desperate he becomes, the more unhinged his behavior is, the more exhausted and defeated and frightening he seems, the more money he spends….and this is just the opening act simply to be on the ballot to have a chance to win the presidency and therefore literally save his qualify of life. The only other option is losing the nomination and, if not going to jail, litigating and hemorrhaging money for the rest of his life. He will be exhausted and uninspiring. The likelihood of Trump looking weak and small by the time the presidential election really kicks in is very high. The only thing worse for him would be if he lost the nomination, but it wouldn’t even be that much worse.

The fact that he perceives this to be an open question, as seen by attacking down in the desperate unhinged ways he started doing again, will show to a growing number of voters that the anointed one may really have been a demonic grifter after all.