Voting Against Tim Walz Would be Like Voting Against Santa Claus

And what kind of sick asshole would do that?

William Frawley as Charlie Halloran in Miracle on 34th Street (1947)

Remember Charlie Halloran from Miracle on 34th Street? He was a secondary character that didn’t get too much screen time, so you’d be forgiven if not. He was the cigar puffing political advisor to the judge overseeing the competency case in the latter part of the movie. He advised the judge to suppress his instincts of jurisprudence and avoid ruling against Kris Kringle (aka Santa Claus), knowing that a watchful electorate would punish him for it. His point was basically, “people are going to think, ‘what kind of evil bastard would rule against Santa Claus?’”

In a strangely prophetic way, Charlie—and really the whole movie—represents much of what recent politics have become: movements and elected leaders based on feelings and vibes, not data and facts, or proper legal analysis. This is perhaps a good topic for a future article. (*jotting down notes now*)

But my point in bringing this up here is that Kamala Harris’ VP pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was a good one, largely because the guy resembles Santa Claus. And it would be really hard to vote against Santa Claus. You’d have to be kind of a sick asshole to do so.

Of course, people are going to be voting for Harris, not Walz, but having Walz on the ticket makes the whole ticket that much more appealing. As I wrote in my recent article assessing the VP candidates and the narratives they represent (“With Her VP Pick, Harris is Choosing a Narrative as Much as a Person”), Walz is part of the Joy Ticket. And given the last decade or so of acrimonious politics, it’s going to be hard for a huge portion of the country to vote against Joy.

Walz is a narrative choice, not an electoral choice

The big knock against picking Walz was that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a hugely popular governor of probably the most important state in the Electoral College. Picking Shapiro was seen as a way to secure that state’s Electoral Votes and therefore secure the election. Not a bad take at all. My top preference was Shapiro, partly for this reason, and partly for the fact that he’s the most rhetorically powerful speaker.

We’ll learn more in the coming days and weeks I’m sure, but it seems obvious that Harris and her team were more focused on vibes over electoral considerations. Walz does not really play into an Electoral Vote analysis. Minnesota is a pretty safe blue state in presidential elections, although it has wavered dangerously close in the other direction in the very recent past (see 2016). The choice of Walz certainly solidifies it, but choosing him was probably not necessary to keep the state blue.

Choosing Walz is a national play based on vibes. He does a few major things with his presence.

First, he is a genuine, authentic person that exudes joy. This will emphasize the contrast with the dark angry MAGA vibes of Trump-Vance.

Second, he gives permission to white, blue-collar men to vote for Democrats. In this sense, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear did the same thing, but Walz would play better in the Midwest than the South, being from that area. The South is a mostly lost cause for Democrats. The Midwest is really what they should be focusing on, as they have strong roots there and a tradition of being very competitive. Plus, they want to maintain at least their Blue Wall (WI, MI, PA) success and hopefully expand on that.

Third, he should unify the base. Picking Shapiro would have been a bit of an experiment that probably seemed less appealing than the alternative. Shapiro’s outspoken stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict, and his departure on a few other traditionally stalwart liberal issues, has caused some divisiveness and could have made for a major distraction during a time when Democrats need to come together. This was the whole point of Biden dropping out of the race, after all—to unify Democrats. Well, if they were going to force unification upon the party then, they should probably be consistent in that sentiment now.

So choosing Walz was a way to say: “We are the party of hope and joy and unity. Come join us in our voyage into the future”.

As far as the pure electoral play that Shapiro would have been, my take is that he can still strongly help sway Pennsylvania towards blue. He’s very popular there, and he will be a very visible voice campaigning hard for, and with, Harris. His strong vocal support for her will likely still be an effective way to win Pennsylvania.

In addition, Harris and her team might want to consider sending out whispers that Shapiro is being considered for a high-level cabinet position, such as Attorney General. This would still give Pennsylvanians a reason to “vote” for him in an indirect way.

I’d personally LOVE to see Shapiro as AG, being the main face and voice behind the prosecution of the elite MAGA criminals. He would be a welcome change to the maddeningly overly politically correct Merrick Garland.

State political considerations

The other thing about the pick of Walz, is that it doesn’t upset the state politics situation too much. Democrats currently hold total power of the legislative and executive branches of Minnesota state government. Therefore, if Walz ends up leaving to actually become the VP, the Minnesota state government will safely stay in Democratic hands.

The same can’t be necessarily said of Shapiro. If he left, then there was a very good chance that, while the new Governor would remain a Democrat, the new Lt. Gov would be a Republican, as the Senate President Pro Tem is a Republican and that person would be next in line for succession of that position. If the Democrats won the state Senate in the upcoming election, then it would be different, but Democrats currently have a 22-28 disadvantage there, so that would be an uphill battle. A Republican Lt. Gov would be president of the Senate, and I don’t know all the arcane parliamentary rules of the Pennsylvania Senate, but I’m betting that state Republicans do, and would try to pull some kind of shenanigans with that newfound power.

Keeping Shapiro in place ensures the all-important state of Pennsylvania stays in Democratic—and hence, sane—hands for the 2024 election and its aftermath, and potentially 2028 and beyond. It will likely remain a very valuable state for some time to come, after all. Two terms of Shapiro as Governor would be great for national politics due to the state’s electoral importance. And when his term runs out, he can run for higher national office then, like Senate or President, if he chooses.

Lifting Walz into the national arena and keeping Shapiro in his current position does the least to upset the balance of states’ power across the country. That would change somewhat if Harris does appoint Shapiro to AG or another cabinet position, of course. But in that case, we’d have to hope and trust that the best decisions will be made, and that any potential complications are accounted for and strategically resisted.

Skeletons in the closet

So far, the publicly released opposition research has highly favored Walz. The only truly bad thing for him that’s come up so far is a DUI in 1995. MAGA has acted like this is a sign of a major character flaw that should affect his electability. But, as usual, they are going to overplay their hand on this. The country is not going to vote against Harris-Walz because Tim Walz had a DUI almost 30 years ago. This will fizzle out quickly.

Will there be a “swift boat” moment for Walz, like there was for John Kerry in 2004? Something about his military past that’s highly damaging at worst or unflattering at best, that a few of his old military buddies will be willing to sign their names to? Who knows? It is more than notable that one of the original authors of the “swift boat” episode in 2004 is Chris Lacivita, the man that is currently Trump’s main campaign advisor. But at this time, there’s nothing obviously damaging out there in the public domain.

On the other hand, anything and everything Josh Shapiro has said about Israel or Gaza or conflict in the Middle East would be used against him relentlessly, both by the ultra-left, and by MAGA, who would only bring it up to sow division among Democrats. While Shapiro may have solidified Pennsylvania for Electoral College purposes, he may have depressed enough base votes nationally to cause other EC issues to pop up, such as in Michigan. I personally didn’t think that this would be a major problem. Shapiro’s rhetorical style would have countered this by energizing voters and his more moderate politics would have attracted independent voters, or even skeptical Republicans, which would have offset any base voter worries.

But I obviously don’t have access to all the information that the Harris campaign does. Plus, it’s pretty much beyond dispute that there would have been divisiveness and conflict among Democrats if Shapiro was the VP pick. It wouldn’t necessarily have been very much, but the possibility of the party being perceived badly is a real consideration, as a small but loud contingent of voters can make themselves seem much bigger than they are. The upcoming Democratic convention could have been a major platform for bad optics—and still can be.

The pick of Walz definitely holds almost all Democratic factions together and does it in a gentle and welcoming way, not in an ironfisted manner, a la MAGA and Republicans.

Pundit over-pragmatism

Some pundits will say this was a stupid choice, given the importance of Pennsylvania. What a miscalculation, they are saying, and will continue to say (until the first poll bump upward, at which point they’ll forget they were ever critical); how could Harris just give up the Pennsylvania electoral votes?

They will have their opinions of course, but I think it’s perfectly reasonable to think that Walz could help on a more national level, while being confident that Pennsylvania would stay blue. Pennsylvania did just reject MAGA in a big way in the 2022 Senate and Governor races. Why would they suddenly turn right around and choose ultra-MAGA in 2024, when faced with a positive, joyous, more hopeful and moderate message? It doesn’t make sense to expect that they would.

Also, when you consider the potential Obama-effect that it’s looking like the Harris candidacy may have by electrifying minority and young voters and bringing them out to vote in droves, it changes the playing field a bit. Some states that you never considered in play before might be in play this time around, especially in the Midwest, Walz’s home field.

Consider the following states that went for Obama in 2008: Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina. The first three are in the Midwest; the other two went red in the last two elections, but were competitive and could easily swing back to blue. Walz’s national appeal and the overall narrative strategies might create a scenario more akin to an Obama-2008-style blowout than the tight nail-biter everyone is predicting.

As far as rural, white appeal, Steve Kornacki posted the following Xeet on Xitter early on Tuesday, Aug 6:

If you can’t make out the numbers in the charts, don’t worry, they basically show exactly what Kornacki said. Walz didn’t move the needle much, at least in an obvious way, among rural/Trump counties in MN in the 2022 gubernatorial election. In other words, one of the big arguments in favor of Walz—that he might attract white rural voters away from Trump—didn’t apply in the Governor’s race in Minnesota in 2022.

To this, I’d like to make the following counter arguments:

1. His opponent in 2022, Scott Jensen, was not Donal Trump/JD Vance, nor even was he very Trumpy during the height of Trump’s influence, in 2016-2020. He had a longtime reputation as a moderate during his time in the Minnesota state legislature. Even though he campaigned as a more MAGA-ish candidate in the 2022 governor’s race, many Minnesotans probably didn’t think of him that way. In the 2024 presidential election, Walz represents something very different than in that 2022 contest when he was the one leading the ticket; in this case he represents permission for any Trump-skeptical Republicans to vote for Harris.

2. Walz did win consistently—6 straight times—in the rural MN-1 congressional district, which lies at the southern border of the state. This district had been in Republican hands for 12 years before him. And then, before a 12-year Democratic period prior to that, it had been a Republican stranglehold for 90 years. So, Walz winning here for as long as he did should count for something.

3. Kornacki’s data focuses on rural counties that were already swaying strongly in the Republican direction. But in 2022, Walz successfully swung some previously Republican counties to Democratic, including the third-, fourth-, and fifth-most populous counties in Minnesota. These are located in or near the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, as you might expect. Sure, they are not rural, but they are previously Republican suburban counties with plenty of “blue collar workers”, as Kornacki perhaps misstates as the voter base in question to be in his Xeet. Suburban voters are a very important voter base that will likely have a huge impact in the upcoming election. If Walz helps with white males here across the country, it will be a resounding victory for Harris.

Santa, baby

Look, the guy is Santa without the facial hair. He has a joyous demeanor and an infection smile. He’s highly likable, has a history as a teacher, football coach, gun-owner, national guardsman, and community leader. An everyman’s and everywoman’s man.

He can also talk sternly and in a straightforward manner when it’s called for, much like you’d expect a youth sports coach to be able to do.

He’s proven himself as a great politician and leader, and he’s unapologetic about his agenda. He’s truly the kind of person that the Democrats need in a prominent position to continue their momentum into future victories.

Kamala Harris is obviously going with the Joy Ticket this year, and Tim Walz definitely fits the bill for this.

The Democrats have a great bench waiting in the wings, and I’m sure it will continue to be a challenge to pick the ones to rise to the top in the years to come.

But Santa…..er, I’m sorry—Walz—is getting his turn to open presents this year. He certainly deserves it, and the Democratic ticket will be in great shape because of it.