Turnout Turncoats
People turned out, but not to save democracy
The first thing I noticed as the election results were coming in was that the turnout didn’t seem to be reaching levels that I assumed they would. It was apparent that Kamala Harris was not going to acquire Biden-levels of votes from 2020. While it was a relief that Trump was also not going to reach those levels, it still begged the question of “where were all the voters?”.
Of course, conspiracy theories swirled about this from both camps.
Dems were concerned that Elon Musk may have reprogrammed voting machines with Starlink space lasers and cancelled out votes
MAGA world was convinced that this proved that 2020 was riddled with fraud, due to the puzzling precipitous drop in votes garnered by Harris versus Biden.
I’ll admit it was weird to see. But I’m one of those crazy people that still has faith in our elections, so my mind went more to questions like: “Where the fuck was everybody?”.
It was also clear that more votes were going to come in and the drop in turnout wasn’t going to be nearly as bad as it initially appeared. But for me, any drop at all was unacceptable. I assumed most of the country would be on the same page as me, that this was an existential election and that Trump was, and is, and existential danger to the survival of our Republic.
I don’t think I am being hyperbolic. I’m legitimately concerned that 2028 is going to be a potential nightmare scenario, where Trump and his acolytes figure out ways to undermine the election that year. As we are now seeing, their motto is “heads, we win; tails, you lose”.
After 2020, it seemed that this was obvious. And it seemed we would rally together and make it clear that we wouldn’t put up with a tyrannical manic for president or election denialism in our bloodstream.
This would require immense record-breaking turnout. For me, the big story in the election is why this didn’t happen.
Having several days to stew over it, the reality is that turnout was pretty damn good in 2024 at 64.5% (this number will likely change somewhat as all the votes are counted). It was the 2nd highest since 1908, with the highest, of course, being 2020 at 65.5%.
So it’s hard to complain too much. I mean, a turnout percentage in the 60’s for the world’s beacon of democracy seems a bit anemic in general, but historically speaking, 2024 turnout was extremely good.
This is only considering the national overall turnout, though. There are 50 states with 50 different sets of turnout rates. And there’s 50 different reasons for why turnout might be higher or lower in each of those states.
If overall turnout is low, but at record-breaking highs in the battleground states that essentially determine the winner, then that would theoretically make up for lower national turnout. If high turnout in those states occurred, it could be assumed (as it was by myself) that those states’ voters were on a determined mission to save democracy and vote for Harris.
Nope.
There was higher turnout in these states. Five of the seven battleground states broke their turnout records for the past 44 years. Interestingly, four of those five all flipped from Biden to Trump. Nevada is the one that stayed blue for both elections. Arizona is the only one that flipped that didn’t break their previous record. North Carolina did not break its record while staying with Trump.
So people did turnout at record levels in the states that would tip the election. But they did not turn out for Harris. They turned out for Trump.
In what was probably an audition for a job as DNC chair, Ben Wikler, the Democratic Party Chair of Wisconsin, was quick to point out on Xitter (here and here) that while Wisconsin did have a great turnout and that turnout did end up going for Trump, the margin was less than the overall margin of the country. The idea being that Wisconsin did its job and warded off Trump more than the rest of the country, so let’s call it a victory!
I appreciate him advocating for all his work and the work of all his staff and volunteers. Seriously, he truly is a marvel, and bravo to him and everyone in that state. But I do think it was a bit tacky to whip these analyses out so soon after the election (the first thread was the day after); it appeared more like trying to avoid blame and distracting from disappointing turnout than it would have if he had waited a few days for the results to sink in. It was too much “DNC Chair job interview” and not enough “let’s assess and regroup”.
But regardless of how great a job Wikler did in Wisconsin, the fact remains that turnout was very good, but it favored Trump. This can be repeated for the other swing states as well that had record turnout and flipped.
But here’s the interesting part. Many of the people that turned out for Trump also voted for the Democrats down ballot, voted third party, or didn’t vote. Democrats on the whole performed pretty well in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and especially North Carolina, where the whole state executive branch is now fully in Democratic hands, and they reduced the state House majority to below supermajority levels.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won her re-election bid by losing more narrowly in the counties that went for Trump. In fact, it was the first time in 56 years that Wisconsin voted for different parties in the presidential and senate races. In addition, Democrats picked up 11 seats in the State Assembly, albeit they were using a new state legislative maps that no longer egregiously favored Republicans.
In NC, Democrats won the elections for Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, despite voting for Trump. There were just over 100,000 more votes in the presidential election, which Trump won by 200,000, than the gubernatorial election, which Democrat Josh Stein won by about 800,000.
This suggests quite a bit of down ballot ticket-splitting. Which is interesting, because Stein’s opponent, Mark Robinson, was an absolutely horrible candidate with so much baggage that it was reasonable to assume that he would drag Trump down. But no, NC voters thought that Robinson was unacceptable, but Trump was a totally acceptable contrast.
It was a mirror image for the rest of the country. Beyond the battleground states turnout in general was lackluster compared to 2020 and Trump either lost by significantly narrower margins or expanded his winning margins almost everywhere. This includes eye-opening smaller losing margins in dependably stalwart blue states such as New York, New Jersey, and California.
Perhaps this is a function of those states’ voters knowing who was going to win their states, rendering their votes practically meaningless. Perhaps people just really wanted Trump this time around. But this phenomenon is what kept Trump from losing the popular vote while winning the Electoral college for a second time, which would have been quite a feat.
So the reality is that America in 2024 is, at best, a mixed message. It is okay with a felonious, venal, brute…..but only sometimes. It apparently wants fascism……but not too much. Perhaps they think that fascism can be held in check by their Senators, Governors, and Secretaries of State. This is incorrect, in my opinion.
But at worst, America is ignorant, apathetic, and/or outright fascist. Any combination of those is not good. It doesn’t bode well for the future.
There will be more data that comes out as all the votes come in. And the demographics will become clearer. Further analysis will occur which could reveal further how the electorate was thinking.
But for now, the main question I have is: Where the hell was everybody when America needed them?
Thinker at the Gates: But we have powerful posts of opposition with: (1) Blue State Governors joining forces to RESIST unlawful intrusions by Big Brother; and (2) Kamala Harris looking very good to be the next Governor of California.
The Governorship is no second prize.
Kamala Harris would be Governor of a highly industrialized, populous state, the equivalent of a wealthy mid-sized nation.
Under the 10th Amendment to the United States Constitution, the State Governors, especially when they combine, are powerful to resist unlawful intrusion by Trump's Big Brother State, and several of the Blue State Governors have already committed to protecting their residents.
There are always going to be at least 10% of the voters who do not grasp national politics, but react to their day to day lives. You get time out of your 12 hour shift, vote, then stop at the store to pay 1-2 hrs wages for that pound of ground beef.
Four years ago, they swung against the incumbent because of COVID chaos. This time, we (the thinkers among the population) can argue that infrastructure is being worked on, inflation is stable, we are leading the free world and all of that, yet they just worked 2 hours to buy a pound of meat. Again, they voted against the incumbent.
They won't be reading our substacks, listening to the news or reading the newspapers. They tend to be in areas where there neighbors who do pay attention are card carrying MAGA supporters and that drumbeat is steady.
If we want to change perceptions in the masses it won't be done 2 years from now at the Iowa State Fair or 3 years from now in one of the urban areas in one of the 7 golden states. It should be Mayor Pete doing a town hall on the ground this coming February in Hot Springs, Arkansas or Missoula, Montana or even Birmingham, Alabama. Getting to know the local folks on the ground. Equipping them with conversation starters.
Even without that, the signs are already obvious that they are going to take a wrecking ball to the establishment. The terroristic groups that feel enabled will overstep their bounds. All that comes at a cost to them - as we have seen, 10% and more voters always vote against chaos.
In 2 years we will take back Congress, and in two more, we begin to rebuild. The institutions that have been demolished can be built back better. By then the Dear Leader that mesmerizes his listeners will be either gone or so far gone into his dementia that he'll no longer have power to lead a movement that folks will realize was built upon shaky foundations.