Trump is About to Commit Election Interference - On His Own Campaign

In seeking to delay his trials until after the election, Trump may have ensured they do maximum damage right before

Donald Trump’s strategy was no surprise, it’s been repeated in the media ad nauseam: delay, delay, delay. Doesn’t matter how or what for, or why, or when, or with who (whom, actually), or where, or who the judges, lawyers, clerks, bailiffs, bondsman, co-defendants, or coffee go-fers are….just delay. Anything to get the trials delayed until after the 2024 presidential election.

At that time, if he wins the Presidency, as head of the executive branch he could call off the federal indictments and trials, essentially killing the efforts to prosecute him. He wouldn’t have the power to stop the case in Georgia, as that’s purely a state prosecution, but it’s hard to see a trial, conviction, and punishment in that case all coming to fruition during his presidency. Even if he was convicted, if he didn’t willingly surrender to authorities, would Georgia law enforcement really barge through the front door of the White House at 5 AM, catch Trump in his underwear “Truthing” on the toilet, and subsequently handcuff him and transport him to jail? In short, no.

In this example, it’s not too hard to predict that as the end of his next presidential term approaches, on January 20, 2029, there would be efforts to extend his power beyond the constitutional limits, and while it’s harder to predict what the outcome of these efforts might be, it’s safe to say there’s a greater than 0% chance they will be successful.

So there we have it. Successful delay by Trump, and an election victory, effectively means he stays out of jail and avoids all accountability. That’s the obvious goal, and it makes some sense, to a degree. Barring a plea deal that keeps him out of jail and out of office, his life literally depends on the election. If he loses the election, his life, as he has enjoyed it, is over; if he wins, his life continues, but without all the legal baggage. The trials don’t necessarily mean anything one way or the other, as he could be found guilty and still be elected and hold office. But even he understands that it will be hard to win the election being a convicted felon. Indeed, recent polls have shown that even a significant number of Republicans would not want to vote for him if he’s convicted.

But it always appeared to be a long shot that he would be successful delaying every single trial until after the election. It’s true that the Justice Department waited an uncomfortably long time with their investigations of these matters, and the slow gears of justice proved again why that’s a popular metaphor for justice. And yes, Trump can appeal this and that, and make motions, etc., etc. But the appointment of Jack Smith as Special Prosecutor helped to ensure a strong effort to get the trials started and completed before the election. And the reality is that most appeals don’t really stop the process; there is usually time for appeals and motions baked into the judge’s scheduling. It’s not really as easy as it was hyped up that all of the trials would get significantly delayed.

It’s looking more and more like at least two of the trials will be conducted before the election. One is the New York trial regarding the Stormy Daniels hush money payments, and subsequent fraud to cover it up. Despite being essentially an election fraud scheme, it’s considered potentially the least electorally damaging of the trials, as it’s a relatively smaller scale infraction. The other one is the fraudulent elector scheme and conspiracy to obstruct the election proceedings being tried in the D.C. Circuit Court by Judge Tanya Chutkan. This is considered perhaps the most potentially electorally damaging of the trials, as it goes to the core of the question of whether Trump tried to overthrow our system of government or not. Apparently, people still exist out there that depend on trials to make these determinations.

There are two other trials that could potentially happen before the election but are looking less and less likely to happen as the proceedings move forward. The classified documents retention case in Florida, overseen by Judge Cannon, is more likely to get delayed, for no other reason than the judge appears to be on Trump’s side about most questions and has scheduled hearings further out than necessary, and there’s little reason to think she’ll suddenly change her style. And the Georgia state case regarding that state’s fraudulent elector scheme has been moving slow already, and now there are hearings to determine if the local DA running that case, Fani Willis, should be disqualified due to a personal romantic relationship the developed between her and one of her assigned special prosecutors.

For the sake of this discussion let’s focus on the D.C. trial with Judge Chutkan, as it is considered the most electorally important one, and one that could do the most damage to his electoral prospects. Trump has been actively trying to delay this one with appeals regarding immunity and double jeopardy, “coincidentally” the type of appeals that need to be adjudicated before a trial and not after it, as most appeals to have to be. (If you didn’t catch it, the word “coincidentally” was stated with major sarcastic tones).

Try to stick with me as I summarize his measures so far and strategy going forward: Trump asked Judge Chutkan to recognize his immunity from prosecution; she refused to give it to him, so he appealed to the D.C. Circuit Court, which granted a hearing with a 3-judge panel. Before this, Special Prosecutor Smith tried to get the Supreme Court to just grant a hearing themselves and skip over the D.C. Circuit Court appeals process. They refused, so the D.C Circuit had their hearing and took one month to issue its opinion, which extremely predictably ruled against Trump and his immunity claim. That panel tried to speed things up by saying that Trump can appeal to all of the Circuit Court judges (“en banc”), instead of accepting just the three-judge panel’s ruling, but if he did, the stay on his trial would be lifted and the trial could proceed as scheduled. His only option to delay was to appeal to the Supreme Court, but instead of doing that specifically, he appealed to the Supreme Court the D.C. Court’s lifting of the stay in the event that he appeals to get the en banc hearing. Technically, he could win this appeal on the stay, then appeal on the immunity issue to the D.C. Court en banc, and then appeal that again to the Supreme Court. Whew!

All of this would accomplish his goal of delaying the trial to maximum effect. Trump is actively fighting against a quick resolution to this immunity question, which is really obviously not going to be decided in his favor, and everyone knows this, including his lawyers and Trump himself.

But the way the timing is coming together, he’s all but guaranteeing that this trial will be conducted during the most intense part of the election season, and completed right before the election. It’s conceivable that even if he wins all these appeals, that the trial could start in September or October and end at the end of October or very early November, right before Election Day. It’s also technically possible that an inordinate delay by the D.C. Circuit full panel of judges or the Supreme Court could push this past the election, but that’s very unlikely given that both bodies have already agreed to expedite the proceedings already held before them. They seem to understand that expedition is warranted and therefore are likely to expedite everything that they agree to hear, if they agree to hear it.

The question that we should be asking now is if the timing of the D.C. trial really matters if it’s before the election. For example, is it better for Trump for the trial to be finished several months out or a few weeks out from the election?. I think it’s an emphatic “Yes!” If a guilty verdict is reached right before the election, it has a major chance to sway the direction of the election dramatically against him at the last minute. The further before the election would allow for time for events to unfold; time for more news cycles to happen and push this story out only to be forgotten by the time the election occurs; time for Trump surrogates to spin and develop arguments to try and win back the Republican voters that said they would not vote for a convicted felon; time for focus groups to be analyzed to see what arguments work. If you haven’t been sickened by Congressional Republican groveling behavior before these trials and convictions, then prepare to be sickened when you see them contort their brains in explaining how a convicted felon should still be elected president, or about how the D.C. trial was an illegitimate sham. It won’t be a pretty sight.

But if the trial happens right before the election, these disheartening scenarios won’t have time to play out. I’m sure we’ll hear calls of an illegitimate trial and marred election either way. No matter what, this election and the aftermath will be gut-wrenching. But at least the finality of the election results will have its powerful stronghold over the mindset of most of the country before those arguments have a chance to coalesce, and only a desperate attempt at manipulating the electors would be the option at that point, and who the hell would be crazy enough to try that? (Again, please read that with a sarcastic tone).

But the point is that the less time between the conviction and election, the worse it is for Trump. He is best at filling a void with rhetorical feces, and the larger the void, the more feces it will hold. It’s part of the reason he wants to delay any deadline he ever faces. His opportunity for persuasion is longer and holds more potential. With a limited timeframe, his wily attempts at persuasion are limited as well.

Please understand that I do not think Trump will win the election, either as a convicted felon or acquitted defendant, or as someone who has not been held to account yet a trial. I have written a couple articles on how I think we are in the early stages of an era very favorable to Democrats and liberals (see my posts “The Stages of Political Drunkenness” and “The Country May Lurch Leftward in Surprising Ways in 2024”). I am not overly concerned with these trials affecting the overall outcome of the election. However, given that some Republicans have expressed their distaste with voting for a convicted felon, I do think that a Trump loss will be more obviously decisive if he is convicted, and as I’ve explained here, I think that the closer to the election the conviction happens, the more decisive it will be.

That said, I would like to see the most decisive victory possible for Democrats over MAGA Republicanism and Trumpism, so at this point, I’m rooting for these delay tactics to partially work to some extent, as they are teeing his trials up to coincide perfectly with the election. This will result in the most monumental case of election interference in history, and all being conducted by the candidate upon himself.