Thinkfest: Trump Lost the VP Debate

And other belated VP debate thoughts

I posted a Note just before the VP debate that was meant to be snarky and prescient at the same time.

Well, I got the snarky part right, but missed on the prescient part.

“Proposed drinking game for the VP debate tonight, guaranteed to get you drunk fast:

Take a drink when

1. JD Vance says the word “disgusting”

2. JD Vance seems weird

3. Tim Walz seems normal”

Vance didn’t say the word “disgusting” once, after repeatedly uttering it in interviews in the hopes of debasing the interview process and the journalist conducting it. And he didn’t seem as weird as usual, which was obviously by design specifically for the debate. I got #3 right, as Walz did seem normal the whole time. So, you would've still gotten drunk, but it would’ve taken longer than expected.

I’ll lay out further thoughts below, but I thought I would start with the main takeaway for me, which is this: what a difference it makes when you remove Trump from the room.

Don’t worry, I’m not letting JD Vance off the hook, by any means. Yes, he lied, misrepresented, obfuscated, and shape-shifted.

But honestly, politics just feels different when you don’t have the toxic Trump sludge oozing from every orifice. It harkens back to the good ol’ days when politics was boring, but still kind of fun. Where an election was a party-like event, worthy of pulling an all-nighter with some beer and pizza.

With Vance hiding the Trump/MAGA specter well, the debate came off like a cordial affair in which the very existence of our country as we know it doesn’t hang in the balance. It was a mirage, I admit. But it did offer some hope. The feelings it evoked portend hopefulness, in my view.

The fact that Vance knew he had to come off like an empathetic human at least says something about what is needed and popular in our country. If he was outwardly spewing invective at this debate, like his overbearing running mate does, it would mean his team thought the best approach that would garner the most support was to go all-in on hate. They obviously didn’t think that.

The way I see it, anytime the opposing factions in this country show cordiality, normalcy, and calm, Trump loses. It’s one big reminder of what Trump brings, which is ugly and repulsive. And it sets the bar at a level where Trump’s behavior becomes that much more noticeable. Trump thrives largely in an environment where things are ugly and chaotic, because then he’s more acceptable; he’s just part of the noise. As the pendulum swings back to respectfulness of others and our institutions, Trump’s style becomes more and more objectionable.

Forgive me for thinking positively.

Here’s a quick rundown of the general consensus of the myriad debate analyses:

Walz was nervous in the beginning, but performed better as it went on. Vance is a good debater, and was polished and smooth. Walz should have hit harder on several issues, i.e. he was too nice. Vance evaded questions and told lies, but came off as a kinder, gentler sort of MAGA bro, in contrast to his speeches and media appearances. Walz hit is big with his question about the 2020 election directed to Vance. Vance majorly flubbed on that, and when he complained about CBS’ benign “fact check” regarding the Haitian immigrants.

I mostly agree with everything here. Below are some of my thoughts, which I think and hope are original to this publication. Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments.

Walz wasn’t really nervous so much as genuine

The idea that Walz was nervous is somewhat true, but has been a bit overblown. He struggled to find a word and hesitated in his first answer, but he did that several times during the debate. He reminded me a bit of Joe Biden, actually. Like Biden, he stutters a bit, takes awhile to find the right word at times, and is prone to verbal gaffes.

He looked a little out of sorts most of the time and it was obvious that this wasn’t his comfort zone. He probably was a bit nervous, but I didn’t see the contrast from the first half of the debate to the second half. To me, he seemed mostly like his genuine self the whole time, despite being a bit overprepared by his team.

He’s a very natural person, not a great politician or debater, so he’s not polished and smooth. But this makes him highly likable, because you can tell he’s genuine. He’s the kind of politician that is at his best when he’s just around people and speaking off the cuff.

It is in this sense that Walz either “won” the debate, or at least didn’t lose it. Yes, Vance is a better debater and a much more polished politician. But he’s not nearly the natural person that Walz is, which comes off very strongly in favor of Walz.

Vance is an unsettling chameleon

Related to the above thoughts is that it’s obvious that JD Vance is someone that is skilled at doing and saying whatever is politically expedient given the particular context he’s in.

In a nationally televised debate, he’s Mr. Congeniality. In a MAGA speech, he’s a loyal fascist henchman. He does it all and does it well. This is both fortunate and unfortunate for him, as I’ll explain more in a thought below.

But his ability to change personas depending on the situation is weird and unsettling, in a different way that Trump is weird and unsettling. When Vance was chuckling it up with Walz just after the debate, after spending weeks disparaging Walz for his “stolen valor”, it was hard to take seriously. It was obviously fake.

Walz, on the other hand, impressively never counter-attacked Vance or his military service, thereby diffusing the “swift-boating” attempts from Vance and his fellow Republicans. His affability after the debate was likely genuine and even if it wasn’t, it was believable.

But Vance is a different sort of character. Similar to Sam Neill in The Omen III. Guess who Neill played in that movie?

Vance will likely be a tragic figure in American History

It’s obvious that JD Vance is a smart person with a high level of public speaking and debating skills. He’s young and has political talent galore. But he has now chosen to latch himself onto one of the most repugnant political movements in American history for the sake of political expediency. This is a risky proposition for him, especially with roughly five decades left in his life.

Political comebacks can and do happen all the time. But in his short span as a public figure he has flipped his script 180 degrees already. To come back from his current political personality, he would have to traverse the next 180 degrees of the circle either partly or in whole. At that point, who will take him seriously? He might linger around as a middling politician, but reaching the heights of power again seems unlikely.

The older stalwarts of the Republican Party that are now Trump acolytes, like Lindsey Graham or Mike Lee, have always been nutty right-wingers (people tend to forget that Graham was a rabid Clinton impeachment manager). They are at least in the same ballpark as they were 10 or 20 years ago.

But Vance had started out as a Trump-hating liberal, warning all of us of his dangers. Now he’s proudly running beside him, proclaiming vicious xenophobic nonsense in service to his master Trump.

Vance could have taken another route and been a respectable well-spoken voice for American democracy, even if he became more conservative. But he has exploited the political winds, and been exploited by MAGA, for fascistic causes that are not likely to stand the test of time.

In less than a year, after MAGA is decisively defeated, he will be politically homeless and have to latch on to something else. I expect anyplace he looks to will view him skeptically. What once was a promising career will thus be tainted, and he’ll struggle to find acceptance and relevance again for the rest of his long life.

Walz is one of the few people that could pull off his kindly attack lines

Could anyone have said “That was a damning non-answer” the way Tim Walz did after Vance evaded the question of whether or not Trump lost the 2020 election?

He has a kindly, almost whimsical nature about him that makes his attacks not seem like attacks. This is quite the contrast to Trumpism’s mean-spirited nature. This is one reason why he’s viewed so favorably and why he’s turning out to be a great choice for running mate for Kamala Harris.

In much the way a teacher has to treat his students with respect while simultaneously exerting authority, Walz has a way of putting people in their place in the most palatable way possible. This is probably what the country needs right now. A gentle and kind authority figure that can put MAGA in its place without coming off as vindictive and mean.

So far, it’s working, and I think it will prove to be highly successful when Election Day is over.