The Time is Now for Republicans to Get Serious

If there is a true movement to keep Trump from being the nominee, it must show itself ASAP

So far, the Republican primary fight has been lackluster and puzzling. Anyone who thought and/or hoped that there’d be a fierce battle by…anyone (the Establishment, Never-Trumpers, normal people?) to restore something approaching reasonableness to the Republican Party is likely gravely disappointed at this moment in time.

Aside from Chris Christie, no one has emerged as an attack dog constantly nibbling at Trump’s rear end to weaken or embarrass him. Or perhaps the more important interpretation is that Christie has fared so poorly in polls, despite this feature of his campaign.

But whatever the reasons, there is a disappointing reality that in 2024, three full years removed from a chaotic and embarrassing Presidency and coup attempt that should have been a wake-up call for at least 70% of the country, not to mention the Republican Party as a whole, we are still looking at Donald Trump as a front-runner for one of the 2 main slots running for President.

I don’t say this as someone that thinks he’s guaranteed to be the nominee. There is so much going on that could change the game, including his multiple indictments and likely damaging discovery revelations that are will probably get reported. Even though I think there is a decent chance he won’t be on the Presidential ballot in the end, it is disheartening to know that enough people want him there, and that he is even this close to begin with.

However, I do think that there is time and space available for him to lose the old-fashioned way: through basic primary politics.

If you truly examine his position, he’s a fairly weak-looking Republican Party nomination candidate. He’s basically the Republican Party incumbent, so you would expect to see incumbent-like numbers in support. Take into account that it’s Trump, the most ultra-hyped once-in-a-lifetime politician in most of our lifetimes, and the numbers are even more lame.

He’s currently hovering around 50% in 3 of the first 4 scheduled primaries (yes, Iowa is a caucus state, as are a few others, but let’s just call them primaries for simplicity’s sake). In most of the other polling he’s in the 50-60% range. Normally, this is impressive polling, and he’s generally 25-30 points ahead of the 2nd place candidate, which is a formidable lead. (Polling numbers are taken from 538’s most current tracking of polling averages).

However, like I mentioned, he’s the Republican incumbent, and he’s Trump, so this is actually fairly weak. And it means in most states there is a contingent of 40-50% who are already looking to someone else. If Joe Biden were polling in this range, the media would be reporting on his weakness nonstop, much more than they already are. But since it’s Trump, we can’t ever hear about how weak he is.

The problem is that the Republican Party nomination mechanism is constructed to penalize diversity (imagine that). Their state-by-state winner-take-all system for collecting delegates means that the states’ winner by large plurality will easily win an overwhelming majority of the delegates. The solution is for the Republican Party to get serious, and coalesce around one other candidate NOW, before it’s too late to matter.

Right now, DeSantis is a strong 2nd place in Iowa, and Haley is a strong 2nd place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Interesting things can happen in these three primaries, and momentum shifts in ways that can alter the course of the rest of the nominating process. It’s possible that a very strong showing in Iowa by DeSantis, possibly even a victory there, could change the game significantly and reveal Trump to be weak enough to scare many of his contingent into changing their minds.

But DeSantis’ prospects diminish greatly after Iowa. He’s in 4th place in New Hampshire polling and a distant 3rd in Haley’s home state of South Carolina. The chances of him doing well in those two states are minimal. Plus, he’s on the decline, having spent his term of his apparent rising stock basically not running, and therefore his campaign has been like an inflated balloon continuously losing air. And there are enough embarrassing physical tics and behaviors that are only doing more damage as they get increasingly publicized.

On the other hand, Haley is a close 3rd place in Iowa, just a few points behind DeSantis. She’s also a relatively strong 2nd place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Plus, she’s not prone to embarrassingly uncomfortable behaviors and verbal gaffes and is in a state of rising momentum. (Yes, she just made those Civil War comments without mentioning slavery, but I think that’s been overblown in how much it will hurt her and will be forgotten by tomorrow morning).

It makes a lot of sense for every candidate other than Haley to drop out now and fully endorse Haley, IF they are serious about actually ridding the GOP of the MAGA influence that has made it an ineffective and threatening entity in American politics. If Haley can make Iowa a strong, close finish, or even win there, she has a real shot at winning New Hampshire if everyone else is out (Trump is currently averaging 44% in NH). Then, she has a real shot at South Carolina with everyone else gone in that field plus the momentum she may have gained from Iowa and NH.

For the sake of completeness, let’s quickly address Ramaswamy. Basically, if he stays in, he’s probably taking votes away from Trump. So he’ll likely get out sooner rather than later, so he can at least preserve a chance to be chosen for Trump’s Cabinet should Trump win the general election, or at least continue grifting MAGA voters to enhance his income. But even when he drops out, he’s a fairly insignificant player at the moment, polling in single digits, and even behind Christie in some states. Therefore, his voters migrating to Trump will have a minimal effect, although admittedly could be the difference for Trump in some states.

I know this is very wishful thinking, and the likelihood is that it won’t happen like this. The factions in the Republican Party appear to be too acrimonious towards each other for such a voluntary coalition to take place early enough to matter. The Party’s “diversity” will likely make it so the strong plurality of Trump wins again.

But IF—and it’s a big “IF”—the Republican Party and their financial backers are serious about changing their course to something respectable and viable for the long term, they can try to wheel and deal to pare down the field ASAP and at least give Haley a fighting chance to expose Trump’s weakness early enough to influence the rest of the primary season. We won’t hear too much verbally from anyone, as they are scared of retribution from Trump, but money and power, and the behavior it can influence, do talk. The next couple weeks will let us know where they finally stand.