The Stages of Political Drunkenness

We may currently be in the last stage of the Republicans’ Binge

There are many theories about historical “cycles”. One prominent one is the “megapolitical” cycles theory described in the book Sovereign Individual by investors William Rees-Mogg and James Dale Davidson, in which they argue that overarching “megapolitical” cycles tend to last roughly about 500 years, with one distinct so-called “Age” blending into another one (Industrial Age, Information Age, etc).

Another cyclical theory is the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory, which purports there are generational cycles lasting about 20-25 years, with each cycle shift called a “turning”.  These “turnings” are in groups of four, with the final, or “Fourth Turning”, being one that is more destructive than the earlier three, and results in revolution or some kind of literal or figurative violent shift into a new societal consciousness. (Some on X/Twitter proclaim that we are about to experience a Fourth Turning now, yikes!).

These cyclical theories are perfect for our conspiratorial age, and are not generally taken too seriously by historians. But like many conspiracies, they do have elements of truth to them that make them enticing to examine, and at least somewhat believable on the surface.

In this spirit, I would like to introduce what I believe are cyclical political ideological behaviors of the country. I don’t pretend to know exactly what the inflection points are, as they tend to blend together. I think of it more dependent on predictable human behavior, but expressed politically, not the result of external forces of some kind that fulfill a preordained destiny. It just so happens that there’s a similar lifespan for each, but it’s not a strict rule for the timelines.

Emphasizing the lack of scientific basis for this, I’ll call it the “Stages of Political Drunkenness”. This is when a political ideology, usually through the conduit of a political party, emerges as the triumphant one for a period of time, roughly every 40-50 years, but then slowly deteriorates and collapses due to the weight of its own hubris and madness; sort of like the annoyingly overly-confident drunk at a party. This emergence tends to happen during or after a national crisis, and I believe we are in the early stages of a new cycle now, shifting from Conservatism to Liberalism.

There have been alternating cycles before this in the last 150 years, which I will examine here. Below are stages’ descriptions and modern historical examples, in order of occurrence. I have chosen to organize the cycles by its stages, with the eras being subgrouped in each stage, in order to emphasize the stages more prominently. But if you chose to jump from stage to stage by each era’s timeline, you should see a cohesive description of the era throughout its own timeline.

The Sipping Stage

This stage is defined by new ideas being tried and an emergence of a new generation of leaders and thought that changes the population’s consciousness.

Conservatism to Liberalism - early 1930’s. This Sipping Stage would have been at the beginning of this era’s crisis, the Great Depression. Really, “sipping” may be too benign of a word to use here, as FDR and the Democrats strongly attacked the crisis with a bombardment of government programs aimed at keeping people employed and able to afford basic necessities. But as far as the metaphor of “sipping” goes, where one is trying something new which is apparently to their liking, the metaphor suffices. New ideas for quickly fixing the country’s newfound problems took hold. This era is appropriately defined as “Liberal”, meaning heavy reliance on government intervention and prominent safety net sensibilities among the populace.

Liberalism to Conservatism - late 1970’s to early 1980’s. The most recent Sipping Stage before today occurred in the late 1970s to early 1980’s when conservative Ronald Reagan came on the scene and successfully won the presidency twice, both times in blowout fashion. At that time, the country had gone through a long period of Liberal dominance. This coincided, but I think not randomly, with the rise of a young Newt Gingrich, who likely transformed U.S. politics into the ugly rhetorical monster it is today (I highly recommend listening to Steve Kornacki’s brilliant podcast “The Revolution” which details this transformation).

The country’s answer to this era’s crisis of “Stagflation” – high inflation, high unemployment, and low growth – was to take “sips” of the drink of modern Conservatism. This included lowering tax rates, reducing regulation, and rhetoric about “family values”. It is hard to argue that this new Conservative consciousness didn’t work for the time, as the late 1980’s began an era of relative peace and prosperity for the country. In the late 1980’s and 1990’s the U.S. economy grew at robust rates, with unemployment and inflation at low or at least very tolerable levels.

Conservatism to Liberalism - Today.  As will be further emphasized below, we are seeing a crisis of confidence in our government and subsequent push towards autocracy. This is a period where new Liberal ideas are being explored and put into effect to counter this crisis. The Build Back Better program and the Inflation Reduction Act are attempts to expand government to help fix the problems of the day. And a strong push for voting rights and a resistance to Republican efforts to suppress voting are being used to allay citizens’ fears that their votes may not count.

The Chugging Stage

This is a period of being high on the success of the leading ideology of the day, of euphoria, when sippers like what they are tasting and sipping becomes chugging. This is when it seems that the current direction of the country is impossible to pivot from, that a new dawn has broken for humanity, and the gears of history have churned irreversibly at a new level of power. To invoke the current metaphor, it’s when everyone at the party is chanting “Chug! Chug! Chug!” and cheering on each other’s excesses.

Strongly Conservative Era - Late 19th/Early 20th Century.  In this era, the idea of “laissez-faire” became trendy. Generally, it was considered preferable for the government to stay out of the regulation of business and for people to be in control of their own destinies. This was the Gilded Age, a time of robber barons and monopolies, when the prominent business people of the day ruled, literally and figuratively. Much innovation and growth happened during this time, and society advanced rapidly, increasing the standard of living for all.

Strongly Liberal Era - 1940s-1960’s.  In the next era, liberalism was dominant, and this stage took root in the 1940’s, 1950s and 1960s .  This was when the U.S. won WWII,  income tax rates reached over 90% for the highest income-earners, and strong movements in lower-income-people’s rights (union workers and poor people) and civil rights resulted in landmark protective legislation (welfare, Medicare/Medicaid, Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts). Unemployment and inflation was low, and freedom and equality reached more people than ever before.

Strongly Conservative Era 1990’s -2000’s.  The beginning of this era’s Chugging Stage could be considered the Republican Revolution, resulting from the 1994 midterm elections, when the Republicans won the majority of the House of Representatives for the first time in 42 years. Many facets of conservatism that had been mostly stifled or forgotten about in the previous Liberal era were prominently invoked by conservative leaders over the next couple decades, such as reduction or elimination of abortion rights, revamping or elimination of the government safety-net programs of the previous era (SS, Welfare, and Medicaid), a balanced federal budget, and strong ties to hard-line religious groups that espoused various takes on the concept of “family values”.

The Stumbling Around Stage

This stage is marked by arrogance and hubris of the ruling ideology, where it shifts to more of a simmering tiresome ordeal than an inspiring platform for the population. This is when the leaders of the party believe they can do no wrong and see their recent success as a never-ending mandate. The fun happy drunk that can at least stand up on their own is enjoyable and entertaining. When that same person can’t walk without help, and slurs insults at people, they become intolerable.

Strongly, but Wobbly, Conservative Era - 1920’s.  The 1920’s is when President Calvin Coolidge famously declared that “The chief business of the American people is business”. Business-minded people had won the era and were gaining wealth and partying and dancing like never before.  The stock market was going on a bull market tear, and business was going strong, but people lower on the ladder were being exploited for this success, creating simmering resentments. In addition, the constitutional Amendment of Prohibition was passed in 1920, and lasted through 1933, so even social conservatism was rampant across the country. The small guy couldn’t even relax and enjoy a drink after a hard day of work.

Strongly, but Wobbly, Liberal Era - 1970’s.  The next era’s stumbling around would be in the 1970s, a decade of pain and malaise, marked by high inflation, high unemployment, and low growth (this combination was dubbed “Stagflation”). Many economists consider the causes to be government overextension, through high government spending due to the previous decade’s new safety net programs and the Vietnam War, combined with a gas and energy shortage crisis. Taxes during this time were lower than in the 1950’s, but they were still considered high and stifling at a marginal rate of 70%. Even so, the Democrats had held control of the House firmly, and their grip never seemed threatened.

Strongly, but Wobbly, Conservative Era - 2010’s-2022.  The most recent era’s stumbling can be the Republicans’ blindingly stubborn push to further on economic and social ultra-conservative policies such as lower taxes for the wealthiest people, abortion restrictions, racial and immigrant scapegoating, and the erosion of confidence in our country’s leading institutions for their own electoral purposes. All this, despite what seems to be an obvious growing consensus across the country against all of these things.

The Pass Out/Hangover Stage

I consider this stage to usually overlap with the Sipping Stage of the next era.  This is when the ideologies are shifting, the population is decisively moving on, and the previously dominant forces are useless in solving the problems of the era. Or, in the spirit of this theme’s analogy, they wake with a headache, struggle to get to the bathroom to either vacate themselves or vomit, and are forced to regroup and get on with their normal lives.

Conservatism Passes Out/Liberalism Sips the Juice - early 1930’s.  Conservatism was essentially useless at this time.  After the 1929 Stock Market Crash, and the emergence of what was to be called the Great Depression, Conservatism attempted the same approach that had worked throughout the Roaring 1920’s but it was insensitive and ineffective. Due to the rampant exploitation of workers during the previous period, the population was now more sympathetic to labor and the “small guy”, and government intervention started winning the day.

Liberalism Passes Out/Conservatism Sips the Juice - 1980’s.  This is when Liberalism lost its effectiveness to fix Stagflation and Conservatism began its rule.  The early 1980’s was a referendum on the two ideologies and Liberalism lost badly. The Reagan Revolution occurred at this time, and Stagflation was soon to be a thing of the past.

Conservatism Passes Out/Liberalism Sips the Juice - 2023 - ?.  I expect the next decade or two to be a period of Liberalism. At this point, Conservatism, at least as defined by this era, is useless. Demonizing immigrants and minorities and force-feeding strict socially conservative policies that the overwhelming majority of the population don’t want, is causing an implosion and impotency in today’s Republican Party. They tried populism, but the problem with populism is that it tends to demand a strong and active government, which is usually the purview of Liberalism. So only the ugliest parts of populism were able to take root in the Republican Party, not the helpful parts. Since the population is demanding the government do something, Liberalism naturally will have to take over.

Sure enough, Liberalism is currently Sipping, as seen through Democrats starting to control most or all of the Federal government, and passing legislation aimed at increasing the government’s role in attempting to help build infrastructure and decrease inflation. I expect this will generally be seen as a success as we get deeper into the 2020’s, and these programs start taking more and more effect and results become more obvious.  In addition, most of the country will be relieved to seemingly quash the rise of Conservative-related authoritarianism and xenophobia. This will lead to a period lasting through the 2030’s and possibly even 2040’s where Liberalism can do no wrong. 

But as these examples show, it likely will become wobbly and stumble around just like the ideological eras before it, and a new era of Conservatism will take place, with the shift occurring probably in the late 2040’s to 2050s. But for now, let the chugging begin!