Republicans' Shutdown Argument Has Devolved into Chaotic Nuance
Which means they are losing
Forget the polls, even though they seem to be showing that Republicans are “losing” the shutdown fight. Really, each party has enough people blaming them that no one is leaving this battle unscathed.
One way you can see who has the disadvantage in a political battle like this is if and how the language of a party evolves. If the language is changing, there is a reason, and it’s usually not a good one. Whether it’s polls, directly talking to people, or weathering the storm of angry messages from constituents, it’s possible for them to feel enough heat to change strategies and alter behavior.
And the one that feels the most heat is the one that’s changing.
It’s often said that, in the contexts of political messaging, "if you’re explaining, you’re losing”. And Republicans are now in a prolonged explaining phase of their shutdown argument.
Like prehistoric slime that emerged from the bottom of a boiling lake and evolved into walking, talking, sentient beings, Republicans’ arguments on this issue have evolved over time, only in reverse.
In the beginning….
Consider where they started. The original message was practically a masterpiece of simple blunt force messaging terrorism: Democrats are shutting the government down to protect free health care for illegal immigrants.
You would have been forgiven if you shrugged and gave up on Chuck Schumer at this point, messaging beast he is not. But Democrats actually handled this particular fight well. They chose the right place at the right time for the right reasons, as I wrote a few weeks ago. Here’s a link to this article below, if you’d like to read more:
Republicans were looking for a “They’re eating the cats!! They’re eating the dogs!!” moment for the shutdown clash, but must have found out soon after that this nativist fear-mongering doesn’t play as well when they’re the ones in power while people are suffering.
How do we know this wasn’t working? Because they started explaining.
The devolution begins
Republicans soon felt they had to prove their claim by citing the source, “Pg 57, Section 2141” of a Democratic Continuing Resolution proposal, surely knowing that few of their MAGA base would actually look this up. It should come as no surprise that this citation does not produce satisfying results.
Pg 57, Section 2141 does not “give illegal immigrants free health care”. It repeals the Republican bill previously passed that drastically cut health care benefits, including emergency care for undocumented immigrants. So, technically, by a several degrees of Kevin Bacon-style separation, by bringing back this care, Dems “want illegal immigrants to have free health care”.
This is what their flagship argument relied on. A shameless rhetorical trick, as Republicans are wont to do, but still not one that helped their argument stick. The reality is that this emergency care provision is there so that all people don’t have to produce “papers” to prove they are citizens to get emergency life-saving health care. Such a burden would hamper emergency care of everyone. Even MAGA cultists could grasp this logic.
Since that didn’t work, they’ve essentially abandoned this illegal immigrant talk. Their strategy became sending Speaker Mike Johnson out every single morning to do his version of pounding the podium in anger and disgust while lying. But he’s such a bookish technocrat at heart, all he did were long detailed explanations as to why Democrats supposedly are at fault for the government shut down.
He explained, explained, and explained some more. And then added a person here and there to also explain.
Over time, the original succinct messaging devolved into many scattered pieces. Here’s just a few examples below:
Democrats hate America and want people to suffer to promote their Marxist agenda (Video).
Democrats are using needy families as leverage to achieve their political ends (Video).
Democrats are following the orders of their new leader, Zohran Mamdani (a mayoral candidate that can never be president due to not being born in the country). (Video)
Recently, Johnson even tried to suggest that Republicans aren’t in charge of the government, and therefore are helpless without the Democrats. The problem is this makes no sense to the general public, since Republicans hold the majorities in the House and Senate, and run the Executive branch.
Passing the nuance baton
One certainly could make an argument that Democrats are the ones that shut down the government, but one would have to bring up parliamentary Senate filibuster rules to explain and…..well, there’s that damn word again!
So it was always going to be a challenge to get the public behind them if the “free health care for illegals” shtick didn’t work. Relying on nuance to explain the first position was damaging enough. But then covering that nuance with a nuance-y syrup, and then sprinkling all of that with crumbly nuance was going to end with a soupy mess of degeneracy that is making even MAGA faithful cringe in appalled confusion.
Such chaotic nuance never stood a chance to take hold in the hearts and minds of the population when using simple, targeted nuance already means you’re losing the argument.
Democrats have long been the arrogant egg-headed intellectuals that have to explain their nuanced positions to everyone. Therefore, they struggle in elections dictated by folks that just want their bacon prices low. Now, Republicans have taken up the “explainer” mantle. And they are being crushed by the weight of it.
Just from the headline, maybe chaotic attempts at sophistry? Nuance gives them a little credit.
They are losing. They need to lose more and faster.