Polls are Shifting as Consumer Confidence is Rising. Coincidence?
And other thoughts on recent polling
I hate focusing on polls, especially this early in election season. It truly is one of the most pointless endeavors. I question the value of polling to the average person, and I abhor the idea that they may cause voter enhancement or suppression, depending on which way they lean. I figure if you are an informed citizen, just go vote; it doesn’t really matter what polls say. Don’t let them change your behavior in any way.
But, alas, as a news and political junkie, it’s hard to break the habit of looking at them and thinking about them. And of course there’s always “everyone else is doing it”, so why not engage in this unhealthy behavior since everyone else is, much like smoking a joint at a college party because you don’t want to be seen as the uncool one. This is an apt analogy, as polls are very much like a drug. They don’t contribute anything productive to your well-being—in fact, they do the opposite—but they do give you that rush that gets you through an otherwise tough day.
So here’s some thoughts about polls, or at least the recent trends they suggest are occurring, not merely the polls themselves. Similar to consumer-level credit score monitoring services, their value isn’t so much that they tell you an accurate score. Their value is more about what direction they show your scores going.
Biden’s polling numbers are improving as consumer sentiment is rising
Biden’s approval rating average on the polling analysis site 538 inched above 40% last week for the first time since October 26. His head-to-head matchup numbers against Trump have been slowing moving higher as well, and he’s more consistently leading, whereas prior to recent weeks he was consistently trailing. These polls are usually within the margin of error, so they have been essentially tied for months. But there is a noticeable directional trend occurring.
Consumer sentiment has been steadily rising off its historically low numbers in recent months. The last three months have seen it rise particularly sharply. It was under 70 for two years straight from Nov 2021 to Dec 2023, and since then it is on the cusp of 80. This is one trend and that can’t be ignored or brushed aside as irrelevant.
So is it coincidence that Biden’s polling numbers are improving as well? Probably not, as historically people that feel better about themselves and their financial situations are also likely to feel better about the leaders in power. Fair or not, they may have been placing blame on Biden for their recent economic woes; but will just as quickly credit him for their economic prospects rising.
It’s reasonable to assume this trend will continue, as there is a lag between economic reality and economic sentiment, and between economic sentiment and political sentiment. The more positive recent economic sentiment didn’t kick in on higher economic reality for about 6-12 months, and political sentiment is just now kicking in after 6 months of improving economic sentiment. So even if the economy turns sour again right away, the effects won’t be fully felt for months, and it likely won’t bleed into politics for months after that.
The most likely scenario is that regardless of exactly what the economy does over the months leading up the election in November, consumer sentiment will continue rising and Biden’s poll numbers will continue rising along with it. You can check out my more in-depth analysis of the effect on Joe Biden the economy is likely to have by clicking the link below.
Some other polling trends that are hard to ignore
A new HarrisX poll came out today with Biden & Trump tied. This poll is not particularly high quality or notable in general. But there are a few interesting things to note on this one as of today:
This poll has been one of the most consistently Trump-leaning polls out there. They recently had Trump ahead by 4, 4, 4, and 8 in the last 4 polls conducted, so the fact that it’s now tied shows legit movement.
When they force respondents to give a binary answer between just Trump and Biden (no “Don’t Know” option), Biden was up 61-39, which seems almost unbelievable. It probably shouldn’t be taken too literally, as the sample size for this particular question is much lower than the overall sample size of the poll for some reason. But this low sample is consistent across previous polls, as is the positive movement for Biden. The past two polls in this category are: Biden 55-45 and Trump 52-48. So once again, there seems to be a legitimate trend occurring here.
The poll above that had Biden ahead 55-45 in a binary choice was conducted just after Biden’s State of the Union Address. Hard to say for sure if that speech is what turned this number around, but the timing is certainly interesting. The polling took place from March 8-March 10, directly after the SOTU address, and the polls included a cross tab of people that watched or didn’t watch the Address. So it seems like it could be a sign of a real SOTU effect.
Related to the above point, the cross tabs showed that Biden led significantly among those that didn’t watch the SOTU Address 58-42. For those that did watch, it was tied. The subsequent poll did not include this breakdown, so it’s impossible to identify a trend here. But this could suggest that either another factor led to Biden’s overall jump in positive movement in this poll, or people that didn’t watch were affected by what they saw and read about the Address in the media or on social media. It would be interesting to know the psychology behind these answers, but we will probably never know for sure.
Again, it’s not so much what the poll itself shows today as a snapshot in time, but it’s what it has been trending over time. The general poll and binary choice numbers are moving in a positive for Biden and have shifted significantly in just over a month.
Almost every coneivable poll has been showing a similar trend over the last few months, from Harvard-Haris (not to be confused with HarrisX), to CNBC, to Morning Consult to Reuters. The Economist’s polling average has moved from Trump +3 in early February to tied now. This suggests that as the November election comes more into focus and more people start paying attention, Biden is garnering more support.
But even though this is the case, the polls are still essentially tied, and no one should change their preferences or behavior based on these polls. If Biden starts having comfortable leads in these polls above and beyond the margin of error, no one should feel comfortable sitting out Election Day in anticipation of Biden’s sure victory. It’s only a sure victory when enough people vote.
Good polling should not equal complacency
As Noah Berlatsky pointed out in his recent article “Bad Polls Aren’t Bad for Biden”, having tight polls are probably best in order to keep people from being complacent. In fact, if Biden is consistently trailing, more people might be more energized to make it to the polls in order to ensure he wins.
This is one reason why I’m hesitant to mention the recent positive trends for Biden in the polling. My readership isn’t huge enough to make a big difference in voter participation, but just putting it out there might increase the complacency consciousness that exists, for which I would feel guilty.
But the point of me mentioning this is to ensure that people understand that politics is a messy science, and as much as we like to think that everyone must be paying attention and wired in during these highly charged times and that public opinion is static and predictable, the reality is quite different. There’s so many factors and considerations and different types of people out there that sentiment is changing all the time. I hope the fact that it’s changing now is validation that things, events, and persuasion do still matter, and that at no point should we give up working to make a difference.