People are Missing the Point About the Other Dem Candidates' Polling Numbers

This oft-panned chart tells the tale perfectly

There is a polling chart that’s recently been disseminated on social media that is getting panned by many pundits and commentators. It is somewhat understandable at first glance why, but upon further reflection, it totally makes its intended point.

The chart originated from a Data for Progress poll, and was apparently used in a Biden campaign email to subscribed supporters. It is a comparison of how Biden is polling against Trump to the same polling of other potential Democratic candidates that have been getting some recent media buzz on the subject of replacing Biden. Here it is below:

One might say that this was a ridiculous graph to tout to supporters, as it shows Biden essentially doing the same as other prominent candidates. If the point was to show that Biden is polling better and is the best chance to beat Trump, this was not the graph to use, they say.

Tom Nichols, a best-selling author and writer for The Atlantic offered this take on Xitter:

This was one of several on Xitter that expressed scorn and mockery for the possibly incompetent Biden team that is desperately scrambling for any good news.

Below is a Xeet from Nate Silver, coming from another angle, but essential the same ballpark of criticism:

I’m going to examine both points and make the case for why this chart is actually a strong data point in support of Biden remaining the Democratic candidate.

Sitting POTUS’s are generally not viewed favorably

Nichols’ point is that Biden is polling roughly the same with other potential candidates “as a sitting POTUS”, implying that he should be achieving higher polling numbers because a sitting POTUS would be favored significantly higher than one who is not currently the president. This is just not true. In fact, the opposite tends to be true.

I recently wrote an article for The Banter (“Americans Hate the Present and Revere the Past”) that showed that Americans generally don’t like sitting presidents. Maybe it’s because the electorate gets sick of them or blames them for anything bad that happens in their lives. But whatever the reason, favorability ratings tend to be highest for presidents around the time of election and inauguration/transition of power, and lowest during their term.

In this article I included favorability polling from Pew Research across the presidencies of Trump, Obama, and George W. Bush. They vary in levels of approval, but the trends are pretty clear that approval is higher at the beginning and ending of a term with a 2–3-year dip during the meat of the term.

This means that being a sitting POTUS does not confer any special favorability among the population, and actually does the opposite: it makes people not like you. Until they think you’re going away; then, apparently, nostalgia kicks in and they like you again. I’m not trying to be facetious; I’m just going off what the data shows.

In this sense, the chart is that much more impressive, because a sitting president will be subjected to relentless criticism and blame, as Biden currently is, not to mention the constant attacks, smears, and abuse of government oversight by House Republicans to try to damage him just before the election. The fact that he is at 45%-48% with Trump under these conditions, and no one does any better, is a testament to his staying power and popularity among the electorate.

Being less well-known is generally better

And then there’s Nate Silver, modeler and inaccurate prognosticator extraordinaire. He makes the point that “being less well-known…depresses your polling”. This is also wrong. Usually, the less well-known you are, the better. And then when you’re subjected to the scrutiny and spotlight of a campaign, you take hits and criticisms, which are the things that depress your polling.

And to make my point, I can use another chart from the same Data for Progress report that generated the above chart that was used in the campaign email. This chart shows the favorability ratings of the “big three” of Biden, Trump, Kamala Harris, and other prominent Democrats that are mentioned as potential replacements for Biden. See below:

The first thing that stands out is that the ones with the lowest net favorability are the most well-known (Biden, Trump, and Harris). You can even make the argument that Gavin Newsome is the next most well-known, being the governor of California and active on the national media stage, and his net favorability is on par with the big three. Almost all of the others have a net positive rating (J.B. Pritzker being the only one that is negative).

This chart is basically what it looks like when national favorability is measured and visualized. The less well-known you are, the less people have an opinion of you, so the less they decide if they like you or not. The result tends to be that only the fringes have an opinion that tends to even things out, and even sways things in the favorable direction.

But once there’s a national campaign, extensive oppo research is done, and effective negative ads are generated, favorability is affected, usually for the worse. Now consider a current sitting president and all the blame he gets for anything and everything bad going on in peoples’ lives, and the hit that he or she would take for those sentiments. Given this, it’s actually kind of remarkable that Biden is totally holding his own against Trump, who’s been basking in conditions of less scrutiny and blame for his three years out of power.

This is why I, among others, feel confident that, as Trump gets more air time and is platformed more in national media, his approval is likely to sink, as people will be reminded of what a chaotic deranged imbecile he is.

What this chart really shows

Going back to the original chart, it is actually making the case for Biden in a very strong way. Biden is the most-vetted president we’ve ever had, being a public government figure for over 50 years (I previously wrote about this here). He’s been subjected to more scrutiny and criticisms and smears than almost any politician ever because of this.

Therefore, the negatives of Biden are baked into these polls. Yet, he remains at the top of the polling versus Trump.

One of my main points about why I think Biden should stay in the race is because I don’t believe it’s worth the risk to just put someone else in there and see what happens once they are subjected to the scrutiny and criticisms that a negative national campaign against them will surely generate. Why not go with the candidate that has already been through this, has already beaten Trump before, and has currently the top polling against him?

I my mind, this chart supports my opinion on the matter. It is not some desperate attempt to show him simply leading the pack be a point here or there. It shows remarkable resilience and power of Biden’s appeal.