"Party Elites" are Not Going to Kick Joe Biden Out of His Presidential Run

This is largely because Joe Biden IS the "Party Elite"

There’s this notion among Biden resistors that someone can come along and remove or uninstall Joe Biden from his perch atop the Democratic Party and install another presidential candidate. This has been popularized recently by Nate Silver, former political odds analyst extraordinaire and current Biden Dem troller. Here’s what he said in response to someone asking who exactly are the “they” or “you” in the common refrain from these folks which basically goes something like this: “You can’t be seriously trying to win the biggest election in history if you run old-man Biden. They need to step in and make a change.”

Here he is again referencing this amorphous group when challenged on his take of best political practices to be pursued by Democrats:

First, let’s acknowledge that Nate Silver is a smart man. He popularized a version of political analysis that didn’t really have a niche until he invented it. He’s knowledgeable and writes skillfully, if a bit esoterically. He’s been an unqualified success. Let’s also acknowledge that he’s not an astute political analyst, and has been recently prone to fits of anger or resentment (hard to figure out which exactly) where he denigrates Democrats and left-leaning moderates. See this post below, which seemed a bit out of character at the time, but really fits into the arc of his recent professional life, at least as it is currently displayed on social media.

Why this scenario is “gonna be funny” is not clear, and basically comes off like a partisan pot shot, and the first major indicator that he seems to be favoring the Musk approach of being an independent-seeming-but-eventually-full-throated-right-wing influencer. Also, it was kind of humiliating for him that he confused the cited Wisconsin Supreme Court decision as one that would affect federal elections, as opposed to the state offices that the ruling concerned. As I said, not the most astute political analyst.

But I digress (and will probably write an article soon about why his style of analysis wasn’t successful long-term and examining his recent transformation). Basically, he, among others, are popularizing the idea of Democratic Party “elites” making the call that Biden should not run for President, and therefore removing his candidacy and transplanting it with another. This is a highly misguided proposition.

Who exactly are the “elite” of the Democratic Party? According to Silver, they are “elected officials, donors, WH staffers, labor and interest group leaders, and influential media members”. These people have “a lot of power” and “demonstrated it by coming to Biden’s aid in 2020”.

Let’s examine the first item on his list, the elected officials. Anyone that’s followed politics at some point in their life knows that the highest office in the land, the President, which is an elected position, is the most elite elected official one can be. All national executive policy is directed from this position down, and everyone in the party looks up to it for guidance on how to proceed with anything from actual bureaucratic tasks large and small to communications and promotion via the media, etc. The President is essentially the leader of the party the minute they take office, and almost all actions of the party spring from the desires of this leader. He or she sets the tone, agenda, and subordinate leadership for the party the minute they are elected. This person literally picks the official Party leadership team that works at the National Committees (Biden did this in 2021 as President-Elect). You don’t get much more “elite” than this. Therefore, guess who the most elite of the elite currently is? Joe Biden.

Think about how Trump is so feared by his Republican Party and basically is in control of every aspect of their policy and rhetoric. He’s taken fear and pressure to another level, because he has an army of rabid physical intimidators ready and waiting to pounce on anyone disloyal. The Democratic Party has a version of this too, but not to the maniacal and physically dangerous degree of the Republicans. It is not wise to be disloyal or publicly outraged at the establishment in the Democratic Party if you are a party member, and if you are, you’ll be socially ostracized and miss out on other potential opportunities you might otherwise have (see Dean Phillips), but at least your life and limb will be safe. Bernie Sanders’ followers in 2008 and 2016 were the closest to a frenzied army that a Democrat has had recently, and he became a prominent and significant challenger to the establishment, but in the end was unsuccessful. Democrats were just not afraid enough of them to fall under their thumb, and actually were polite and gracious enough to give him and his followers a stronger voice within the party. They accepted this and their unrest was quelled. You know, like a functional political party would normally behave.

Now let’s look at the others on the list of elites. Are we really to believe and expect that leaders of these other “elite” groups are going to coalesce completely around an effort to oust Joe Biden from the Democratic nomination, like an attempt by cabinet members to utilize the 25th Amendment and remove an incapacitated president from office? No, they can’t and won’t remove him by force, that would be way too ugly, and there’s not really an official mechanism for them to do this. It would be assumed that the idea is that they will apply so much peer pressure and intense persuasion to Biden that he will finally be convinced and agree to walk away.

Are they going to organize and sit down in concert with Biden in the Oval Office and take turns laying out the reasons why Biden needs to give up his candidacy? Or send one trusted confidant to convey the message? Imagine if this actually happened, and the firestorm of publicity that will surely come out of this. There is no way this meeting is not leaked to the public and used to pummel Democrats and America over the head, whether it’s a successful attempt or not. It will be “Dems in disarray” on steroids if such a thing occurred. And if the “Biden is old” narrative seems demoralizing now, imagine how a “Democratic party attempted coup” narrative would go. Trump and Republicans would not pass over this by any means; it would be a constant news headline. This is absolutely not the thing the Democrats need heading into the most momentous election cycle of any living person’s lifetime.

As far as the idea of these “elites” coming to Biden’s aid in 2020, that was a completely different situation, and not thoroughly accurate. There was no Democratic incumbent in 2020, and the party had several candidates to choose from at the time. Sure, Biden emerged as the strongest candidate, and this can be attributed to some degree to “elite” Jim Clyburn’s endorsement in South Carolina, which propelled Biden to victory there, and helped build momentum through the rest of the primary seasons. From there, other candidates that dropped out chose to endorse Biden, to help solidify the vote against the avowed socialist Bernie Sanders and increase the Democrats’ chances of winning the presidential election. But outside of these “elites” of elected officials endorsing Biden as the primary results were ongoing, who else can we name that nudged this along? Is there a specific group of “donors, staffers, labor leaders, or influential media members” that got together in a smoke-filled room to game out the plan? If there was, it has not been reported yet. And if they did, it was only because the candidate picture was becoming clearer and clearer as the primary process was winding down. This was not exactly a concerted effort involving a cohesive group of individuals from the different classes of party elites. This was just primary politics playing out in real time.

We are currently witnessing presidential politics playing out in real time, from the vantage point of the incumbent. And the fact is that Biden is the incumbent president, and therefore the ultimate elite in charge and in control of the party. A cabal of party “elite” actors, carrying out a plan of persuasion to get Biden, the most powerful person in the party, to give up his candidacy this cycle would be unheard of. There is a power of the incumbency that exists no matter how much the Biden resistors might want to pretend it doesn’t. How many incumbents in our history have been ousted as their party’s nominee in their next election? There have been legitimate attempts at replacing incumbents via primaries, but they almost always fail, and generally occur within the context of economic turmoil (1980 during Stagflation) or extraordinary events (1976 against Ford, a non-elected). Even those examples are not due to actions by the “elite” but by voters making their choice in the primary process.

The incumbent is the unquestioned leader, master of the domain, and can use the office of the presidency to frame issues a certain way to sway the public in their favor. They shouldn’t be challenged or removed unless under very rare circumstances. Sure, this is an unwritten rule, but why change over 100 years of effective established precedent? Because his approval ratings are low right now? Introducing chaos and discontent within the party during this time is not going to help anything, and considering the stakes of this election, is definitely not worth the risk.

An attempt to persuade Biden to step down would be a grave and unnecessary unforced error. The media, which already loves to downplay Biden’s strengths, would have a field day with this and give the constant impression of chaos within the party. And this would be before the next candidate was chosen. Imagine the subsequent process to decide the candidate if Biden did decide to step down. Some say the obvious choice is Kamala Harris, the incumbent Vice President. Sure, she would be a very capable president and it would be great to have the first minority female candidate, but if it’s the approval numbers that are scaring people, well, Harris’ are even worse than Biden’s.

Even if the “elites” wanted to go with someone other than Harris due to the bad approval numbers, they would have to go through a rigorous selection process, either through public delegate brokering at the Democratic Convention or through back-room negotiations where everyone agrees on a candidate to put forward. But who would it be, and why? There’s a lot of young and hungry talent in the Democratic Party waiting in the wings, but it’s not clear exactly who the best candidate would be, and none of them have the track record, experience, or have survived the vetting that Biden has endured.

There is no “elite” currently aligned in unison available to change the Democratic Party nominee, and no good reason to even consider such a thing. The fact is, Joe Biden is the party elite. What he says is what goes. Where it goes remains to be seen, but Biden has the experience and temperament to ensure a satisfying resolution for Democrats and America.