A Deal With Their Devil
The House Republicans will soon be forced to compromise with Democrats
The House Democrats will have a decision to make soon. At some point, after much squirming, infighting, and soul-searching, a group of House Republicans will likely reach out to them to make a deal. The Democrats are likely to negotiate and sign off on it.
Republicans will not resolve their Speaker choice on their own. They are in the midst of an intra-party civil war, between the “establishment” and the “arsonists”. They are very far apart from each other right now, with no signs of compromise on the horizon. Just the opposite, in fact; it seems that Republicans’ animosity toward each other is just as bad, if not worse, as towards Democrats.
There’s so much publicity available and money to be made for those that want to be seen as anti-establishment rebels trying to tear the House down. The rabid MAGA crowd likes rebellion and revolution, but those are only possible right now in the context of being within their immediate society. It’s old news for them to fight an outside enemy, such as the Democrats. There is no real thrill in that anymore; it is the default expectation, and it’s a 30-year-old war that has now lost its luster.
Now, for a new generation of hardball Republicans, the thrill is about tearing their own society down from within. Republicans have been trending toward civil war in our country in recent years, but, realizing that is a complicated task, they lost patience and now they are preferring a civil war within their own party. It’s quick, easy, and can all be televised and summed up in 50-word tweets.
I expect that establishment Republicans will win, not because of some moral superiority or extraordinary strategic cleverness, but because they have the upper hand: the Democrats.
It is extremely unlikely that the Republicans will work this out on their own. We have seen the “compromises” that their factions demand, and the forces that strongly push them one way or the other. They are in a constant conundrum, which is how to preserve their majority and hold on elected office, while proving to their emotional voters how willing they are to contradict anything Democrats do.
The problem for the “arsonists” is that they are relatively small in number and they have less common ground with Democrats. There are only a small handful of things they may genuinely agree with Democrats on, one of them being not having Kevin McCarthy as Speaker (see my article “Let’s Call McCarthy’s Ouster What it Really Was: Bipartisanship”). They have verified that they either want another “arsonist as Speaker”, such as Jim Jordan, or they have complete government gridlock that showcases their rebellious nature.
Advantage: “establishment”. Through public anonymous source reporting and leaks of private vote counts within their caucus, we know that most Republicans are “establishment” but don’t want to be perceived that way. Their rhetoric can be fiery and they may vote in ways that suggest they are more interested in tearing down than building up. In this civil war, they will be greatly tested, like never before.
In the end, they will be desperate to win. This won’t be for moral or altruistic purposes, but because they know what most of the country knows: they are not popular, demographics are working against them, and they don’t represent the views of most Americans. It’s all fine and good if they can complain on Fox News and highlight the problems America faces when Democrats are in power. But it’s another thing altogether to actually actively cripple the government.
The “establishment” Republicans know that if they become a party that goes all-in on truly tearing the government down, they will lose elections on a regular and consistent basis for the foreseeable future. They will have to make a choice, and they will choose to minimize the damage done and preserve the possibility of winning in the near future, and potentially hold on to the House majority in the near-term.
They know that continuing with the recent behavior they’ve exhibited – from the last deal to avoid a government shutdown, to the vote to remove McCarthy as Speaker, and to the recent circus of trying to elect a new Speaker – results in more embarrassment and humiliation for them. They know that this makes them look like a bunch of childish imbeciles.
This understanding will force them to ask the Democrats to help. Some will risk – and have already risked – being the target of violent threats, or actual violence, and the target of energetic efforts to oust them in their upcoming primaries. But they know that their House majority will disappear in a big way if their members in toss-up districts are seen as being too rebellious and too anti-establishment.
There only needs to be 5 of these Republicans to reach across to Democrats to make a deal to elect a moderate Speaker and change House rules to preserve order. They will probably strategically minimize the number of members that do vote this way, and allow members in safe districts to vote otherwise, to maximize their chances of getting reelected. The number of them was probably roughly reflected in the votes against Jim Jordan for Speaker, so 20-25.
The deal they make will include promises to end government shutdowns, fund Ukraine in their war with Russia, among other policy issues, and keep the house running smoothly. Even if the single-member Motion to Vacate rule sticks, the Democrats will keep their end of the bargain by voting against it, as long as the “establishment” Republicans keep their end of the bargain by acting responsibly and including some of their policy concerns in upcoming legislation.
This is likely how this Republican intra-party Civil War progresses for now. It could eventually take interesting twists and turns from here, and it may even veer off a cliff. But in the short-term it likely will result in a House of Representatives that is the model of good governance.